Economic Rockstar

Connecting Brilliant Minds in Economics and Finance

070: Chronis Lalas on Prospect Theory and ‘Making a Behavioral Economist’

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070: Chronis Lalas on Prospect Theory and ‘Making a Behavioral Economist’

Chronis Lalas is an aspiring Behavioral Economist who is researching and publishing about the applications of chronis lalasBehavioral Economics in the real world. Chronis is a recent graduate of the University of Macedonia, Greece with a BA in Economics.

Chronis blogs at The Newbie Economist and aspires to be a behavioral economist that will optimize Fortune 500 corporations’ marketing campaigns through analyzing their existing customers’ behavior.

He aims to bring a fresh perspective to traditional economics by optimizing in consumer behavior analysis and brand management. As a young economist, his vision is to inspire students and the young generation to take on Behavioral Economics. His work has been published, amongst others, in the Online Political and Economic Newspaper The European Sting.

Economists:

In this interview, Chronis mentions: George Lowenstein, Dilip Soman, Leigh Caldwell, Yoram Bauman, Steve Keen and Dan Ariely.

Economics:

In this interview, Chronis mentions: behavioral economics, prospect theory, confirmation bias, loss aversion, financial crisis, capital controls, austerity, nudge and utility theory.

Who Chronis Would Love to Collaborate with:

Dan Ariely, Rory Sutherland of Ogilvy and Nir Eyal.

In this episode you will learn:

  • what is Prospect Theory.
  • about the infamous Prospect Theory graph.
  • about loss aversion and how Prospect Theory differs to Bernoulli’s Utility Theory.
  • how Prospect Theory is observed in Greece post the financial crisis.
  • about the reciprocity shown by TOMS shoes in Thessaloniki.
  • what makes consumers buy.
  • how consumer behavior can be influenced by manipulating their subconscious through a creatively built environment.
  • How playing French music influences the purchase of French wine.
  • How the names of products and how they are pronounced can change the way consumers think about the product.
  • why and how companies should consider a brand name for their product or service so as to maintain long-term customer loyalty.
  • about the plans that Chronis is undertaking including his behavioral economics comic.

Prospect Theory Paper and Graph:

  • Kahneman, D. and Tversky, A. (1979). Prospect Theory: An Analysis of Decision under Risk. Econometrica, 47(2), pp. 263-291.

Books:

Blog:

Links:

Research:

Where to Find Chronis:

Credits:

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050: Dan Ariely on Irrational Behavior and the Importance of Our Environment When Making Decisions

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050: Dan Ariely on Irrational Behavior and the Importance of Our Environment When Making Decisions

Dan Ariely is Professor of Psychology & Behavioral Economics at Duke University in North Carolina. Dan’s interests spanDan Ariely a wide range of behaviors, and his sometimes unusual experiments are consistently interesting, amusing and informative, demonstrating profound ideas that fly in the face of common wisdom.

In addition to appointments at the Fuqua School of Business, the Center for Cognitive Neuroscience, the Department of Economics, and the School of Medicine at Duke University, Dan is also a founding member of the Center for Advanced Hindsight.

Dan is the author of the New York Times bestsellers Predictably Irrational, The Upside of Irrationality, and The Honest Truth About Dishonesty and his latest book Irrationally Yours is now available.

Dan has received numerous honors and awards in medicine, psychology and economics.

Dan received a B.A in Psychology from Tel Aviv University, an M.A and PhD in Cognitive Psychology from University of North Carolina and another PhD in Business Administration from Duke University.

Influencer:

Professor Hanan Frenk, Tel Aviv University

Economists:

In this interview, Dan mentions: Brian Wansink. 

Psychologists:

In this interview, Dan mentions: Mike Norton and Elizabeth Dunn.

Economics:

In this interview, Dan mentions and discusses: Tragedy of the Commons, behavioral economics, public goods, pricing, decision-making, choice architecture, Ulysses Contract, happiness, asymmetric dominance effect and choice.

Takeaway:

“Think about your environment and always experiment” – Dan Ariely

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In this episode, you will learn:

  • about Dan Ariely’s traumatic experience resulting in severe burns.
  • how Dan Ariely found his love for psychology and behavioral economics.
  • why Dan will not be teaching his Irrational Behavior course on Coursera.
  • the problems with MOOCs like Coursera and why it is making the wrong choice regarding its open platform system.
  • why Dan was turned down for his first book – a cookbook and what advice he was given by a publisher.
  • why we as humans make very costly mistakes and what we can do about it.
  • how people eat more than they realise and how experiments in economics have shown this.
  • why we are bad at doing things that makes us happy.
  • the most common mistake companies make when making decisions or processing information.
  • how companies can avoid making mistakes.
  • if anger is a good or bad emotion.
  • the most surprising finding from Dan Ariely’s research.
  • the most surprising question put to Ask Ariely.
  • how to get poor people in Kenya to save.
  • how your environment matters when making decisions.

Quotes by Dan Ariely in Episode 50 of the Economic Rockstar Podcast:

“Choice architecture is this idea that our environment influences how we make decisions” – Dan Ariely

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“In the process of trying to not make any mistakes, companies create environments that punish risk and therefore punish ingenuity and growth” – Dan Ariely

“Tim is a very interesting character and he is experimenting on himself. We have to realize that his experiments have the validity that they work very well for him” – Dan Ariely

On Coursera:

“I think we do need rules for trolls. I think that pricing is a very good mechanism for some things and I’m not sure it’s a mechanism for all for all things like this. The reality is that Coursera probably over samples from the people on the tail of the distribution in terms of mental stability.” – Dan Ariely

Books:

Resources Mentioned by Dan Ariely:

Where to Find Dan Ariely:

Transcript:

The full transcript of this episode with Dan Ariely will be available shortly.

Thanks for Listening!

Thanks so much for joining me again this week. Have some feedback you’d like to share? Leave a note in the comment section below!

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Also, please leave an honest review for the Economic Rockstar Podcast on iTunes! Ratings and reviews are extremely helpful and greatly appreciated! They do matter in the rankings of the show, and I read each and every one of them.

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045: Jon Manning on the Art of Pricing and How Economic Theory Has Got Pricing All Wrong

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045: Jon Manning on the Art of Pricing and How Economic Theory Has Got Pricing All Wrong

Jon Manning is the Founder and Principal Consultant of Sans Prix and has over two decades of Pricing experiencejon manning in a wide variety of industries.

Since establishing Sans Prix, Jon (and his associates) have generated millions of dollars in incremental revenue for clients in places such as the UK, USA, India, and Australia.

Increasingly in demand as both a speaker and educator, Jon has spoken at many conferences, workshops, webinars and educational institutions across the Asia-Pacific, the Middle East and the United Kingdom.

In 2011, Jon and Greg Eyres established Pricing Prophets, the world’s first and only online pricing advisory service where clients can ask a panel of global pricing experts and thought-leaders what price to charge for a product or service and why.

Jon holds a Bachelor of Business (Applied Economics) from Deakin University (Australia), a Graduate Diploma of Business (Management) from Monash University (Australia) and a Master of Arts (European Studies), from The University of West London. He is a member of the Australian Institute of Management and the Professional Pricing Society.

In this episode, you will learn:

  • why Jon believes pricing is more of an a art than a science.
  • why pricing is based on human behavior that no scientific model can predict.
  • why there’s no such thing as Adam Smith’s Invisible Hand.
  • that 70% to 80% of companies use cost-based methods to set prices and few use a value-based method.
  • why customers don’t care about companies who use cost-based pricing and prefer companies that use value-based pricing methods.
  • why the best pricing strategy for a company is a value-based method.
  • the trials and tribulations of the pricing strategy adopted by Netflix and how it affected its share price.
  • how a $40 fine for returning a DVD late led to the founding of Netflix.
  • if the best strategy for companies to announce price increases to its customers is to do so a few years in advance.
  • how behavioral economics is opening up a minefield of exploration in pricing.
  • how Apple used anchoring techniques to sell their iWatch by offering a $10,000 iWatch. It makes the mainstream iWatch appear to be value for money.
  • how a $100 omelette was used by a restaurant to act as a decoy so it can influence your decision to pay for high-end or expensive goods.
  • how Goldilock Pricing helps a company, like Starbucks and Harvey Norman, sell more of a middle tiered product as it helps customers make decisions to buy.
  • how Starbucks found the that most of their customers have inelastic demand and decided to increase prices despite a recession in the US.
  • how the internet has changed the pricing model by offering freemium products and services and 30-Day money back guarantees.
  • if there are myths to pricing for companies.
  • how companies like Apple and Amazon price discriminate in order to capture market share and drive revenues upward.
  • how more and more companies are adopting dynamic pricing when selling into different markets.
  • the education pricing model in Ireland, Australia and the US.
  • about MOOCs and how it could have an impact on the future education model.
  • about Gaelic Football and how its players do not get paid unlike other sports.
  • how football games are using dynamic pricing models to charge for tickets based on opposition and weather.
  • that a 1% improvement in price leads to a 10% improvement in operating profit.
  • about the Banksy Experiment in New York where many passers-by failed to pick up an original for $60 that would otherwise fetch for $10,000 in an auction house.
  • how classical violinist Joshua Bell earned $26 in tips playing his $3.5 million violin but played to a packed audience for $100 per ticket the night before.
  • the 2 Golden Rules to Pricing.
  • about the ‘Pay What You Want’ model as followed by Radiohead and Jon Bon Jovi’s Soul Kitchen.

Economics:

In this interview, Jon mentions and discusses: pricing, the Invisible Hand, behavioral economics, heuristics, anchoring effects, framing, Extremeness Aversion, Goldilocks Pricing, demand, elasticity, elastic demand, inelastic demand, pricing architecture, consumer surplus, monopoly, price discrimination, dynamic pricing, marginal pricing and behavioral economics.

Economists:

In this interview, Jon mentions and discusses: Adam Smith, Dan Ariely, John H. Cochrane and Paul Samuelson.

Influencers:

Behavioral economists and marketers.

Quotes by Jon Manning in Episode 045 of the Economic Rockstar Podcast:

What they teach you in economics about pricing is true in theory but it’s irrelevant in practice – Jon Manning

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I know why there is interest in price elasticity but I sort of think it’s a bit like the abominable snowman – Jon Manning.

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There’s no formula to calculate the consumer surplus. You hear a lot of economists talk about the consumer surplus, which in the business community is known as leaving money on the table – Jon Manning.

There’s very few revolutionary monopolies around these days – Jon Manning.

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There’s one thing that’s not a myth and that is you get what you pay for – Jon Manning.

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The 2 Golden Rules to Pricing:

Rule #1: All value is subjective.

Value is in the eye of the customer. No matter what price you put onto something, at the end of the day, the customer is the single point of failure and if they don’t see value at the price you’ve attached to the product, they’re not going to buy. The ‘Pay What You Want’ pricing model is the purest form of value-based pricing since the customer can decide to pay for the product or service by attaching a value to it.

Rule #2: All value is contextual.

By placing a product or service in a certain context, people’s perceptions of its value change. A product placed in a high-end, up-market setting is more likely to command a higher price, whereas the exact same product placed in a low value setting or environment may only demand a smaller price. Joshua Bell and Banksy showed this golden rule of pricing in their experiments.

Companies Mentioned in this Episode Regarding their Pricing Methods:

Ryanair, EasyJet, Amazon, Apple, Uber, Starbucks, Harvey Norman and Netflix.

Recommended Books:

Internet Resource:

Where to Find Jon Manning:

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043: Herbert Gintis on Game Theory and the Multidisciplinary Approach to Understanding Human Behavior

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043: Herbert Gintis on Game Theory and the Multidisciplinary Approach to Understanding Human Behavior

Herbert Gintis is Emeritus Professor of Economics at University of Massachusetts and visiting Professor at Central European University.Herbert Gintis

He is known for his theoretical contributions to sociobiology, especially altruism, cooperation, epistemic game theory and gene-culture co-evolution.

Herbert has a B.A and M.A in Mathematics but switched his PhD program at Harvard from mathematics to economics.

Professor Gintis was part of a group of economists who developed their ideas on a new economics which encompassed issues of alienation of labor, racism, sexism, and imperialism.

Herbert has worked extensively with economist Samuel Bowles, writing their landmark book, Schooling in Capitalist America.

One of Herbert’s latest books The Bounds of Reason emphasises the unification of economic theory with sociobiology and other behavioral sciences which, in the words of Nobel Prize-winning economist, Vernon L. Smith, “is firmly in the revolutionary tradition of David Hume (Convention) and Adam Smith (Sympathy)”.

In the episode you will learn:

  • about the importance of trans-disciplinary research and the importance of collaboration with other disciplines.
  • why economics is not the only social science that explains human behavior.
  • how biology, economics and sociology explain the behaviour of humans in different ways and which discipline is correct?
  • about the Ultimatum Game and how it shows the cooperative and non-cooperative behaviour of humans.
  • about the morality of humans and how we reciprocate kindness with kindness and unkindness with unkindness.
  • why reciprocity makes humans so successful as a species.
  • why some species have a symbiotic relationship with other species which is not the same as reciprocity.
  • how we can fit all the human feelings together to form a multi-disciplinary approach to understanding human behavior.
  • why we always need a system to punish free-riders and non-cooperators.
  • how the future structure of the University can be seen at Arizona State University today.
  • why we need a new generation of thinkers and research centres who are trans-disciplinary.
  • what projects Professor Herbert Gintis is working on right now.
  • why morality controls politics and your vote will not make a difference.
  • how Herbert gets things done in terms of writing books and journal articles.
  • why Herbert did not like The Black Swan by Nassim Nicholas Taleb.
  • about Herbert’s disagreement with Nassim Nicholas Taleb.
  • why Herbert believes that macroeconomics is wrong and is in agreement with Taleb on that issue.
  • the goal of economic policy is not to predict but to put in place economic and social policies that prevent really bad outcomes.

Influencers:

Kenneth Arrow, John Maynard Keynes, Adam Smith and Albert Einstein.

Economics:

In this interview, Herbert mentions and discusses: Marx, rationality, game theory, rational actor model, experimental economics, prisoners dilemma, the ultimatum game, labor market, reciprocity and morality.

Economists:

In this interview, Herbert mentions and discusses: Vernon Smith, Samuel Bowles, Ernst Fehr, Kenneth Arrow and Nassim Nicholas Taleb.

On Math Being the Core Link to Multi-Disciplinary Knowledge:

“It’s really hard in the Behavioral Sciences to get too close to any one thinker because they’re all tainted by disciplinarianism. We need a new generation of thinkers who really think in all of these disciplines at the same time. As long as you can do the math. If you can’t do the math, you can’t do economics or you can’t do biology. If you can do the math, and you know statistics, there’s no reason why you shouldn’t know all of the fields. We need a generation of people who do that. The reason it’s possible now is the internet. Now, there’s no reason for disciplinary isolation. I think the next generation of behavioral scientists is going to much more broad”.

Arizona State: The Next Generation University… Today

Arizona State University is organised trans-disciplinarily. They don’t have traditional disciplines. They have subject areas depending on who asks questions and subject areas there from all sorts of disciplines. Herbert Gintis believes that’s what the future is going to be like, where you abandon the disciplines and add new research centres based on asking questions like climate change, cooperation, epidemiology, warfare, political structure, etc. And then you just hire people who can do that and talk to each other. It is exciting. It will happen. But it will take a long time because the whole organisation of the university is in terms of disciplines.

All of the real advances in the Behavioral Sciences fall in between the disciplines. It requires you do it all at the same time. it’s likely that at the forefront of change in the Behavioral Sciences will be funding organisations, governmental organisations like the NFF in the United States and the ESF in Europe. 

Quotes by Professor Gintis in Episode 043 of the Economic Rockstar Podcast:

Disciplines are almost like a feudal fiefdom. So it’s very hard to do trans-disciplinary research but that’s where all the real action is these days. Not only in behavioral science but in natural science – Herbert Gintis.

As far as I’m concerned, all of life is game theory. It’s the interaction of strategic interaction of individuals of all discipline species and types and races. So game theory comes first – Herbert Gintis.

Human success is not based on selfishness. It’s based on our ability to cooperate – Herbert Gintis.

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“The real enemy of understanding humans is the notion that we’re all selfish. It’s just not true – Herbert Gintis

To do creative work, you have to have time. Once you have time, you get a lot of work done – Herbert Gintis.

“What I like to do most in the world is to read and write. That’s what I do” – Herbert Gintis.

“I did not like The Black Swan at all. It made fun of science. It made fun of statistics. It capitalised on a unique event, the financial crisis of 2008, and he used it to say economics is a bunch of crap. I think that’s just a bad mistake and I had some run-ins with him on the web. He thinks that science is about prediction. Now prediction is important but that’s not what science is about. It’s about expectation” – Herbert Gintis.

Projects Herbert Gintis is Working on Right Now:

Non-consequential behaviour in politics: 

“People participate politically even when they don’t make any difference. In all English-speaking countries, no election with more then 40,000 voters has ever been won by one vote. Meaning that no individual has ever made a difference in a political booth. Political structures are moral structures and they don’t necessarily reflect particular self-interest concerns” – Herbert Gintis.

Resources:

  • Herbert created his own word processor and uses LaTex for mathematical equations.
  • The Web.
  • Evernote
  • Scrivener

Recommended Books:

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035: Stephen Young on Being Car-Free and the Behavioural Economics of Owning A Car

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035: Stephen Young on Being Car-Free and the Behavioural Economics of Owning A Car

Stephen Young is a Senior Lecturer at Brighton Business School and is subject leader for behavioural economics.Stephen Young

He is also Visiting Lecturer at Brighton and Sussex Medical School, where he teaches Behavioural Economics to health professionals, including commissioners, public health practitioners and GPs.

As an independent consultant and trainer, Stephen also provides client workshops and presentations on behavioural economics and behaviour change.

Stephen is widely published and his research interests include behaviour change, climate change, health, sustainability, and Information and Communications Technology.

Stephen does not own a car and is so passionate about being car free that he writes regularly on his blog livingthecarfreelife.blogspot.com. 

Economists:

In this interview, Stephen mentions and discusses:

Paul Ormerod, Richard Thaler, Cass Sunstein, John Cochrane, Paul Dolan, Malcolm Gladwell, Phil Goodwin, Daniel Kahneman, Adam Smith, Karl Marx, Barry Schwartz, Richard Layard, Nassim Nicholas Taleb, Paul Krugman and Friedrich Hayek.

Economic Themes:

In this interview, Stephen mentions and discusses:

Bank run, financial crisis, risk, behavioural economics, nudge, rationality, incentives, tax, choice architecture, obesity, climate change, externalities, loss aversion and the endowment effect.

On Economic Theory:

“None of the models are completely perfect. None of them work to everybody’s benefit” – Stephen Young

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Is behavioural economics storming the citadel or is it shoring up the ramparts? – Stephen Young

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Find Out:

  • why Stephen decided to become an academic.
  • about the Northern Rock bank run in the UK in 2007.
  • why universities need to adapt or die when it comes to addressing relevant content.
  • what Stephen is doing to reduce his carbon footprint in college and how he’s responding to the digital needs of his students.
  • why health professionals are interested in behavioral economics.
  • about the Irish government’s fight against obesity.
  • how Stephen is encouraging a town in the UK to become pedestrian friendly.
  • about framing car ownership – status and perception of rank.
  • how by ditching your car you can burn calories.
  • how the average person is working two days a week to pay for their car.
  • about the emotional attachment that a car represents.
  • what major cities across Europe are doing to make them more pedestrian and bike-friendly.
  • about peak car ownership.
  • some advice from Stephen on how to give up your car and become car free.
  • about the pluralist approach to embracing economics.

“The externalities don’t work for car ownership because it’s not priced in because of the pollution emitted” – Stephen Young

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You can live a better life without a car. You can be thinner. You  can be richer. You can be more sociable. You can be more flexible. You can get around just as easily – Stephen Young.

Reasons for Peak Car Ownership:

  1. The youth do not have the income to finance the ownership of a car due to the high unemployment rates.
  2. High cost of car insurance.
  3. The opportunity costs of owning the latest technology.
  4. You don’t need a car to participate in a lot of things today.

Behavior Economics in the Health Sector:

“We’re not just nudged by the other side, we’re being bombarded by the other side. There’s a lot of room to doubt the way public health policy is being transacted and implemented in a lot of economies” – Stephen Young.

Giving Up Your Car and Becoming Car Free:

  1. Try living without your car for a while before you give up.
  2. If you’re moving house, locate to an area where everything you need is close by.
  3. Don’t give up your car just because it’ll make the world a better place. Only do it to improve your own life.
  4. Take a ‘hike’ – go for a walk.
  5. Walking is a great way of forming your thoughts and ideas as it clears your head and frees your mind.
  6. Walking, rather than driving, improves your health and well-being. It connects you to where you live, to where you are.

“All truly great thoughts are conceived by walking” – Nietzcshe.

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Recommended Books:

Where to Find Stephen Young:

Stephen Young’s Publications:

Forthcoming

  • Young, S. and Caisey, V. Behavioral Economics and Social Marketing: Points of Contact?  Chapter in Volume II of Stewart, D. (Ed) Handbook of Persuasion and Social Marketing. NY: Praeger. 2015.

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032: Joe Gladstone on the ‘Pay What You Want’ Pricing Model and Using Big Data to Understand You Better

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032: Joe Gladstone on the ‘Pay What You Want’ Pricing Model and Using Big Data to Understand You Better

Joe Gladstone is an academic researcher and consultant based at the University of Cambridge, where heJoe Gladstone applies insights from behavioral economics and psychological research to better understand consumer behaviour.

Joe partners with some of the world’s largest corporations, such as Twitter, Bupa and Visa, as well as government departments, to tackle challenges that deal with behaviour change.

Joe’s views on consumer behaviour have been featured in the BBC, Forbes, The Huffington Post and other media outlets.

Joe is founder of BE-events and BE-Recruit.  He received his Masters from Oxford University and his Phd from Cambridge University, and has been awarded a range of competitive grants and prizes.

Find Out:

  • about the link between the discipline of psychology and economics.
  • why Joe decided to do postgraduate research in behavioral economics.
  • how advances in technology, especially in social media, can help behavioral scientists understand human behaviour better.
  • why you do not know how much you spend on coffee.
  • how Joe has identified the relationship between psychology and money.
  • how Joe has used the ‘My Personality’ app to predict your personality from what you like.
  • how companies can use ‘Big Data’ to target messages directly to you.
  • why people are willing to pay for services that they could otherwise get for free.
  • if TIDAL will disrupt the online music industry by taking control of their own music.
  • if Spotify risks losing out to TIDAL.
  • how important is the price of zero?
  • how the ‘Pay What You Want’ pricing model defies classical economic theory.
  • why people pay even if they are given the option to take the product for free.
  • how Radiohead made more in sales when offering their album on a ‘Pay What You Want’ basis.
  • if the ‘Pay What You Want’ model is sustainable for a business in the long run?
  • how Jon Bon Jovi has successfully implemented the ‘Pay What You Want’ model in his Soul Kitchen restaurant in New Jersey.
  • how sitting with strangers to eat in Soul Kitchen can ‘nudge’ diners to pay more than what they were initially willing to pay.
  • about Joe’s passion for financial literacy and financial empowerment.
  • if you can become immune to nudging by having a deeper understanding of it.
  • if knowledge prevents you from being nudged.
  • about behavioral economics events that could be going on in your area with BE-events.org.
  • how Joe maximises his time by outsourcing his work on oDesk.
  • how to get girls in less-developed and poor countries to go to school.
  • how Joe built up a name for himself on LinkedIn by connecting with the main people in the banking sector and offering his services on a no cost basis.
  • what the five personality traits known as OCEAN stands for.

Economists Joe Would Love to Collaborate With:

Professor Dean Karlan of Yale University and Professor John List of University of Chicago.

Economists:

In this interview, Joe mentions: 

Daniel Kahneman, Amos Tversky, Cass Sunstein, Dean Karlan (Poverty Action), David Hagmann, George Loewenstein, Craig Fox (The Behavioral Science and Policy Association), John List and The Behavioural Insights Team in the UK.

Economics:

In this interview, Joe mentions and discusses:

Behavioral economics, experimental economics, factor analysis, microeconomics, poverty, banking, micro-finance, decision making, nudge, nudging, pricing, demand, supply, randomised control trials, field experiments and multi-variate testing.

The ‘Pay What You Want’ pricing model is a great example of where the Classical economic theory doesn’t do a great job of explaining real world behavior – Joe Gladstone.

Resources:

Books:

Papers:

Where to find Joe:

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