165: Stephen Wright on Valuing the Stock Market Using Equity q

November 9, 2018 by Frank

165: Stephen Wright on Valuing the Stock Market Using Equity q

Stephen Wright is Professor of Economics at Birkbeck College, University of London.

Previously Professor Wright worked at the Bank of England and Cambridge University.

He is co-author of ‘Valuing Wall Street: Protecting Wealth in Turbulent Times’ – an informative book published in 2000 warning of the high values placed on stocks at that time.

In this episode we discuss his work on valuing the stock market using a variant of Tobin’s q – a valuation method put forward by the late James Tobin (Nobel Prize in Economics, 1981).

Books:

Valuing Wall Street: Protecting Wealth in Turbulent Times by Andrew Smithers and Stephen Wright
Irrational Exuberance by Robert Shiller

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094: Daniel Crosby on Stock Market Investment Errors and the Price Earnings Ratio

July 14, 2016 by Frank

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094: Daniel Crosby on Stock Market Investment Errors and the Price Earnings Ratio

Dr. Daniel Crosby is a psychologist, behavioral finance expert and asset manager who applies his study of market psychology to everything from financial product design to security selection.

Daniel is author of 2 books – The Laws of Wealth: Psychology and the secret to investing success and You’re not that Great. He is co-author of the New York Times bestseller Personal Benchmark: Integrating Behavioral Finance and Investment Management.

Dr. Crosby is founder of Nocturne Capital. His ideas have appeared in the Huffington Post and Risk Management Magazine, as well as his monthly columns for WealthManagement.com and Investment News.

Daniel was named one of the “12 Thinkers to Watch” by Monster.com, a “Financial Blogger You Should Be Reading” by AARP and in the “Top 40 Under 40” by Investment News.

Daniel was educated at Brigham Young and Emory Universities.

Economics:

Volatility, stock markets, behavioral finance, investments, human error, behavioral bias, money, confirmation bias, loss aversion, price earnings ratio, CAPE, Quantitative Easing and central banks.

Economists:

Benjamin Graham, Christopher Geczy, Jeremy Siegel, Robert Shiller and John Paulson.

We lose 13% of our IQ when we are under stress, so even if you know all of these great lessons about the way the markets work, you tend to have least access to them when you need those lessons the most. – Daniel Crosby

5 consistent factors that underlie the 100 ways that we can make mistakes:

1. Ego – The belief that we are special or different.

2. Emotion – Allowing our feelings to drive our perception of risk.

When we’re in a good mood, the world seems to be a safe place to be. Equity markets seem to be a safe place to be. The opposite is also true.

3. Conservation – A preference for the status quo & Asymmetry – the way we see loses versus gains.

We are much more upset with a loss than a similarly sized gain.

4. Information – We have too much data available for our brains to absorb.

The Fed releases 45,000 pieces of economic data each month. There is no way that we can comprehend all of that. We have information processing problems and we mis-weight data.

5. Attention – Salience trumps probability.

The more vividly we’re able to think about something, the more probable it seems