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Economic Rockstar

Connecting Brilliant Minds in Economics and Finance

016: Jack Schwager on How You Can Become a Market Wizard with Fundseeder.com

January 22, 2015 by Frank

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016: Jack Schwager on How You Can Become a Market Wizard with Fundseeder.com

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Jack Schwager is a recognized industry expert in futures and hedge funds and the author of a number of widely acclaimed financial books. Mr. Schwager is one of the founders of Fund Seeder (FundSeeder.com), a platform designed to find undiscovered trading talent worldwide and connect unknown successful traders with sources of investment capital.

Previously, Mr. Schwager was a partner in the Fortune Group (2001-2010), a London-based hedge fund advisory firm. His prior experience also includes 22 years as Director of Futures research for some of Wall Street’s leading firms, most recently Prudential Securities.

Mr. Schwager has written extensively on the futures industry and great traders in all financial markets. He is perhaps best known for his best-selling series of interviews with the greatest hedge fund managers of the last three decades: Market Wizards (1989), The New Market Wizards (1992), Stock Market Wizards (2001), Hedge Fund Market Wizards (2012), and The Little Book of Market Wizards (2014).

His other books include Market Sense and Nonsense (2012), a compendium of investment misconceptions, and the three-volume series, Schwager on Futures, consisting of Fundamental Analysis (1995), Technical Analysis (1996), and Managed Trading (1996). He is also the author of Getting Started in Technical Analysis (1999), part of John Wiley’s popular Getting Started series.

Mr. Schwager is a frequent seminar speaker and has lectured on a range of analytical topics including the characteristics of great traders, investment fallacies, hedge fund portfolios, managed accounts, technical analysis, and trading system evaluation. He holds a BA in Economics from Brooklyn College (1970) and an MA in Economics from Brown University (1971).

Economic and Finance Themes:

In this interview, Jack mentions and discusses: chartists, technical analysis, fundamentals, futures, normal distribution curve, options, Black-Scholes Options Pricing Model, option warrant trading, efficient market hypothesis, probability, negative externalities, fiscal responsibility, Keynesianism, deficits and demand.

I chose economics because I wasn’t any good to major in physics or math. I just felt I would be mediocre if I went into those fields. On the positive side, I had a super professor for Econ1. He was just so clear and logical – Jack Schwager.

Economists and Traders:

In this interview, Jack mentions: David Shaw, Ed Thorp, John Bender, Michael Marcus, Fischer Black, Robert Merton, Myron Scholes, John Maynard Keynes, Michael Lewis, Nassim Nicholas Taleb, and Yoram Bauman.

In this episode, you will learn:

  • why Jack chose economics at University.
  • about the similarities between Physics and Economics and why they are so different as a science.
  • if there is a certain personality that is required in trading financial markets.
  • if there is a holy grail to trading the markets.
  • about the importance of discipline.
  • how an $18 ‘Job Wanted’ ad in the New York Times landed Jack a position as a key analyst.
  • the one trader that particularly impressed Jack.
  • about the different strategies of some of Jack’s Market Wizards.
  • why normal distribution tail events can have a higher probability of occurrence than is lead to believe.
  • about the tragic ending of Market Wizard John Bender and the current case against his wife by the Costa Rican authorities for his ‘murder’.
  • about Fund Seeder – the world’s first search engine for undiscovered trading talent.
  • about Jack’s forthcoming book with the working title ‘Undiscovered Market Wizards’ and how you could possibly feature it.
  • about the Market Wizards Roadshow coming soon in 2015.
  • why Jack wrote his book ‘Market Sense and Nonsense’.
  • about the debunking of the efficient market hypothesis.
  • what a negative externality is in the context of economic theory.

Physics, Economics and the Stock Market: A Connection

Economics is more complex from a quantitative standpoint because in physics at least the rules are well-defined and don’t change and in economics they’re not stable.

Many schools in economics get it wrong because they fail to appreciate the influence of human behavior which is not stable.

Because of the human element it becomes much more difficult to forecast in economics than it is using physical laws.

A lot of traders interviewed for the Market Wizards book come from the higher level mathematics and physics spectrum. That’s one type of person who is attracted to the markets. It’s solving analytical problems that intrigues them.

Other traders are very intuitive and have a completely different approach to trading markets.

Trading with  Discipline in the Markets

There are no secrets to trading the markets. There are an untold number of ways in which the markets can be successfully approached.

They are all very difficult and most people will fail. There is no common approach and it’s more of a matter of finding an approach that works for you.

On Trading: Regardless of how you do it, you better have discipline – Jack Schwager

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It doesn’t matter if you’re quant or not quant, chart or fundamental,  long-term or short-term. Whatever approach you do use, you better be disciplined or it’s not going to work.

Once I got involved in futures, I quickly discovered that at that time, at least on the analytical side, there wasn’t much talent out there. I think I succeeded because competition was very easy at that time – Jack Schwager.

Life for almost all of us is tremendously influenced by chance more so than people would admit or realise – Jack Schwager.

Probability and Options

On Ed Thorp: He is the walking refutation of the Efficient Market Hypothesis – Jack Schwager

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The options markets are pricing for the assumption of equal probabilities at all times on both sides.

Options are priced for neutrality all of the time and that’s not reality. There are certain circumstances in the markets where something happening is much more likely to occur on one side of the distribution curve than the other.

The markets may assume a log normal distribution. But when there is a critical stop level at some price then, when the market goes to that price, the probability that the market will go below that price, what is considered within the tail events, will be much greater. Just getting to that critical price can trigger an avalanche of orders.

Fundseeder: The World’s First Search Engine for Undiscovered Trading Talent

The concept of Fund Seeder is to create a central place on the web where all traders, particularly undiscovered traders can establish their track records, have them verified and then have investors who are looking to allocate new trading talent find them.

The trader links their brokerage accounts with their own account on Fund Seeder so the numbers come directly from the traders’ brokerage account. That critical verification step occurs on this central platform allowing the traders and potential investors to verify the numbers.

There are traders from over 60 countries on Fundseeder who now have the opportunity to get in front of potential investors and establish a track record.

There is also the ‘seeding’ side where investor groups will participate to find traders and offer seed funding. It acts like venture capital where traders will receive seed funding to allow them trade larger accounts, which otherwise would not have been available to them outside Fund Seeder.

Many brokerage firms can be connected to Fund Seeder, including Interactive Brokers, and many more will connect in the near future.

Fund Seeder is a place where traders go to be discovered and where investors go to look for traders. You trade, we connect, they invest – Jack Schwager

Problems Jack Sees with Economics and Finance

  • The Efficient Market Hypothesis.
  • The Sharpe Ratio.
  • Looking at past returns to pick investments.
  • Volatility as a satisfactory and complete measure of risk.
  • Risk management.
On writing Market Sense and Nonsense: ‘I really wanted to throw stones’ – Jack Schwager

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Jack Schwager on Economists, Externalities and Fiscal Responsibility

I believe that 90% of economists will agree 90% of the time. Economists do agree on a lot of things. You can go from a liberal to a conservative spectrum in economics and still have wide agreement on a lot of things Jack Schwager.

The solution to global warming is a revenue-neutral carbon tax. You have a cost attached to the polluter side and you have a benefit attached to growth and expansion.

Keynes would never have argued for deficit spending in an expanding economy

Recommended Books:

  • Beat the Dealer by Ed Thorp
  • Market Wizards by Jack Schwager
  • Market Sense and Nonsense: How the Markets Really Work (and How They Don’t) by Jack Schwager
  • The Big Short by Michael Lewis
  • Liars Poker by Michael Lewis
  • Reminiscences if a Stock Operator by Edwin Lefèvre
  • Fooled by Randomness by Nassim Nicholas Taleb
  • The Black Swan by Nassim Nicholas Taleb
  • When Genius Failed: The Rise and Fall of Long Term Capital Management by Roger Lowenstein
  • Fortune’s Formula: The Untold Story of the Scientific Betting System that Beat the Casinos and Wall Street by William Poundstone
  • More Money Than God: Hedge Funds and the Making of a New Elite by Sebastian Mallaby
  • Endurance: Shackleton’s Incredible Voyage by Alfred Lansing

Where To Find Jack Schwager:

  • Fundseeder.com
  • Website: www.jackschwager.com
  • Twitter: @jackschwager

012: Yoram Bauman on Cartoons, Being a Stand-Up Economist & His Passion to Save the Environment

December 25, 2014 by Frank

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012: Yoram Bauman on Cartoons, Being a Stand-Up Economist & His Passion to Save the Environment 

Yoram BaumanYoram Bauman is considered the world’s first and only stand-up economist and uses cartoons to explain economic concepts and theories. He has a PhD from the University of Washington and a BA in Mathematics from Reed College. Yoram lectured environmental and health economics at both Whitman College and University of Washington and was a visiting research scholar at the University of International Business and Economics in Beijing. Yoram has swapped the lecture hall for the comedy club and is on a mission to spread joy to the world and to reform economics education. Every year Yoram organizes the Humor Session at the American Economic Association annual meeting.

Yoram is an advocate for carbon pricing and other economic approaches to protecting the environment. Yoram has written extensively on these issues but has also published numerous micro and macro books with comedy and entertainment as its central theme. They include The Cartoon Introduction to Economics, The Cartoon Introduction to Climate Change and Stand-Up Economics: The Micro Textbook. Some of these books have been translated into over 10 languages.

Economic Themes:

In this interview, Yoram mentions and discusses: adverse selection, portfolio selection theory, the invisible hand, environmental economics, environmental taxes, market power, monopoly, corruption, opportunity cost, free market, revenue-neutral carbon taxes, consumption tax, tragedy of the commons, externalities, correlation, hyperinflation, population growth, economic growth, monetary base and rational expectations.

Economists and Economic Schools:

In this interview, Yoram mentions: George Akerlof, James Tobin, Adam Smith, Gregory Mankiw and Paul Krugman.

Yoram’s AH-HA HA HA HA Moment:

“I went to graduate school to work on environmental taxes and to make them a reality, so being an academic was one path to doing that. When I was in graduate school I wrote a parody of an economics textbook by Greg Mankiw just to blow off steam. It ended up getting published in a science humor journal called The Annals of Improbable Research and they run a humor session each year at the AAAS meeting. They invited me to come and I had so much fun that I got into stand-up comedy as a hobby.”

“My academic career wasn’t going as well as I hoped.”

Yoram’s Affirmations/Mantra:

  • “When I had choices in front of me, in terms of life choices, I was going to choose the path of adventure. That’s turned out to work really well for me. There’s this constant pressure in life that you’re not good enough. Maybe you have a PhD in economics but you’re not a Professor at Harvard. I’m in a position where I can take chances and I don’t have to pursue the resume builder and I don’t have to take the conventional path.”
  • “I think if a lot of people stop and look in the mirror, especially college-educated folks, I think that they are already winners. And when you’re already a winner then you can afford to take some risks and take some chances.”
When you’re already a winner you can afford to take some risks and take some chances – Yoram

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Personal Habits:

  • Yoram’s 4 month old baby Zadie wakes up at 4am for a bottle feed. He feeds her, puts her back to sleep and stays up, spending 2 to 3 hours working when it’s quite.
I work pretty hard and set deadlines for myself and make them happen – Yoram Bauman

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  • Yoram spends some of his time at Lighthouse Coffee in Seattle, where his child likes to nap with the comforting noise that’s there, and gets to work on his emails while off-line (there’s no wi-fi at Lighthouse Coffee). It’s a great way to clear out your inbox without fighting off all the traffic

Influencers:

  • Yoram’s father, his grandmother, Helen Winter, his godmother Betty Tansey, his professors, the Overeducated Cartoonist, Larry Gonick, Jon Stewart and John Oliver.

The longer we live, the more there is to learn and the more exciting it is to dig out the answers – Helen Winter.

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In this episode, you will learn:

  • about revenue-neutral carbon taxing.
  • if we should keep economics serious or is there room for comedy?
  • why it’s important to motivate people to open a textbook and how humor and comedy can  do this.
  • how cartoons and humor can bring so much detail and understanding to economic concepts.
  • where it all began for Yoram when writing a cartoon economics textbook.
  • about the cartoon books written by Yoram that document the annals of economic theory.
  • how Yoram humorously depicts why some economists have won the Nobel Prize in Economics in a simplified and memorable manner.
  • how Adam Smith calls the winners of the Nobel Prize in Economics to interview them. Spooked? Find out how.
  • how Yoram found his true calling while reading Mankiw’s economics textbook.
  • how Yoram uses cartoons and comedy to teach us economics and to inform us of the need for environmental taxes, something he is passionate about.
  • how Yoram can use his knowledge on monopoly to maintain a lucrative career in comedy.
  • if Yoram ‘fears market failure’ (he is a monopolist after all!).
  • how the comedy club and the lecture hall are quite similar.
  • about Yoram’s passion for environmental tax reform.
  • how we can reduce the carbon impact on our environment with tax reform.
  • about the meaning of The Tragedy of the Commons.
  • about the secret to being a comedian.
  • why I think Yoram reminds me of Walter White from Breaking Bad.
  • about the connection Yoram has with Steve Jobs.
  • about the influence that the strong women in Yoram’s life had on his outlook and philosophy.
  • how having a new born baby has created a new habit for Yoram to help him get things done.
  • about Joss Paper or spirit money and how you can make your dead ancestors wealthy in the afterworld.

On Being a Monopolist:

“I’m the world’s first and only, so I have market power. Fortunately, I know a thing or two about monopoly pricing.” – Yoram Bauman

‘I’m the world’s first and only, so I have market power’ – Yoram Bauman

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Yoram has over 1.7 million YouTube views – ‘That’s a lot for economics jokes’ – Yoram Bauman

On Failure:

“I’m not afraid of failure because I’m an economist. Economists are experts on failure.” – Yoram Bauman

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“I’ve done my fair share of ‘bombing’. Hopefully you learn from it, you grow from it and you also realise that it’s not the end of the world and that you wake up the next morning and the sun still rises and you try again.”– Yoram Bauman

On Cartooning and The Similarities Between Teaching and Stand-Up Comedy:

  • “Anytime you can try to reach out to people and humanise the subject and humanise yourself as an instructor I think that’s helpful. Humor has a way of motivating people. Especially at college level, teachers forget how important motivation is. Try and give people an incentive to crack open a textbook other than the fact their grades depend upon it.”

‘Cartooning is an under-appreciated method of education’ – Yoram Bauman

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  • “What I learned from comedy is that it’s a two-way street. You have to pay attention to where the audience is and you have to figure out ways to get feedback from them. In the comedy world that’s quite easy – people are either laughing or they’re not laughing. You get feedback pretty easily. But in the teaching world it’s a lot harder to get feedback. You have get yourself in that mindset of thinking about how is the audience viewing this and how can I figure out where they are and how can I connect with them.”

Gigging in Beijing in The Bookworm

  • There’s no censorship at The Bookworm. There’s actually quite a bit of free speech in China if you’re a Westerner speaking English.
  • They had a book on Tiananmen Square in The Bookworm.
  • There’s a lot of China that’s very laissez-faire. You think about it as a Communist state, and you think this must mean it’s like a police state like North Korea. But it’s actually a lot like the Wild West in the United States in many places.
  • If you look at the day-to-day lives of many people, it’s become more like the Wild West than the totalitarian North Korea style regime.

Environmental Tax Reform

  • If we had higher taxes on bad things like pollution, we can afford to have lower taxes on good things. That idea struck me as being intellectually beautiful and it also struck me as something that was politically a good idea that could get some bi-partisan support.
  • I decided to devote a considerable portion of my life-energy to make pollution tax a reality.
  • Economic theory and almost all economists think that revenue-neutral carbon tax is a good idea but if you look at the political system, it’s been very difficult to get environmental taxes to work in the political arena.

British Columbia Case Study on Carbon Taxing

  • British Columbia is considered to have the best climate policy in the world with its revenue-neutral carbon tax and it’s performing terrifically. But it’s one of the relatively few examples of a textbook case of environmental economics in action in terms of pollution taxes.
  • The revenue from the carbon tax in British Columbia reduces investment and corporate tax, so the overall impact on the province is its fiscal status is basically zero.
  • I’m working with a group called Carbon Washington and we’re going to reduce sales tax in the state. Households will pay a few hundred dollars more a year for fossil fuels but they’ll pay a few hundred dollars less a year for something else.

China’s Role in Environmental Reform

  • The Chinese make noise about pricing carbon. There’s a big agreement their president made with President Obama. Maybe they’re exploring the idea but I have a hard time believing that they’re fully committed to it because they don’t yet seem to be fully committed to reducing local air pollution.

Tragedy of the Commons (21:23)

The Secret To Being a Comedian

  • “Let yourself be free to explore unusual areas and hobbies. You have to give yourself permission to follow your passions to pursue something. I gave myself permission to try it (comedy) and I gave myself permission to fail, and I think with a lot of creative endeavours it’s what you  need to do.”

The Difference Between Macro Economists and Micro Economists:

“The level of vitriol in macro economics makes it especially appealing as a target. Micro economists disagree about little things, but on the big things they are all pretty much on the same page. But macro economists are really all over the map and so that opens up some opportunities for  comedy.”

Recommended Books:

  • The Cartoon Introduction to Economics: Volume One: Microeconomics by Yoram Bauman and Grady Klein
  • The Cartoon Introduction to Economics: Volume Two: Macroeconomics by Yoram Bauman and Grady Klein
  • The Cartoon Introduction to Climate Change by Yoram Bauman and Grady KleinAudible
  • Economics of the Environment: Selected Readings by Robert Stavins
  • Becoming Richard Pryor by Scott Saul
  • Andy Kaufman: The Truth, Finally by Bob Zmuda
  • Books by comedian Lenny Bruce
  • A bunch of baby books.

Favorite Internet Resources:

  • Greg Mankiw’s Blog
  • Paul Krugman’s Blog
  • Real Climate
  • Climate Progress
  • Climate Etc by Judith Curry

Where To Find Yoram Bauman:

  • Yoram’s website: www.standupeconomist.com
  • Carbon Washington: www.carbonwa.org
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006: Andrew Heaton on Using Comedy to Explain Economic Concepts

November 20, 2014 by Frank

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006: Andrew Heaton on Using Comedy to Explain Economic Concepts

Andrew Heaton

Andrew Heaton is a comedian, writer and political satirist. He is the presenter of the witty and entertaining economics podcast, EconPop and has a Masters degree in International Politics. Andrew has been featured in a Bollywood movie, plays a lead role in the sitcom Cap South and has been voted best new comedian of 2013 in New York. Andrew hails from Oklahoma, is an Officer to a Prince and plays the Ukelele to enhance the mood of his friends’ amorous endeavors.

Economic Themes:

In this interview, Andrew mentions and discusses: wheat quotas, comparative advantage, protectionism, relative and actual growth, free markets and limited government, Austrian Theory of Monetary Creation, supply and demand, signalling, subjective value, negative externalities, tariffs and import duty, protectionism, corporation tax, scarce resources, population, abundance of resources, the Great Depression, US deficit, unintended consequences, behavioral economics and risk aversion.

Economists and Economic Schools:

In this interview, Andrew mentions: the Chicago School, the Austrian School, Libertarianism, Adam Smith, Milton Friedman, Freidrich Hayek, John Maynard Keynes, Murray Rothbard, Frédéric Bastiat, Thomas Malthus, Gene Epstein, Steven Horwitz,

Andrew’s Influencers:

Gene Epstein and Milton Friedman.

Podcasts:

EconPop is hosted by Andrew, who is joined by economist Steven Horwitz and professor of literature Paul Cantor.

In this episode, you will learn:

  • how Andrew became interested in economics while studying abroad in Scotland.
  • what parallels Andrew draws between politics, economics and comedy.
  • what economists and school of thought Andrew draws inspiration from to carve out his own views.
  • where and from whom Andrew gets his inspiration for his anecdotal writings on economics concepts.
  • how economic concepts is in abundance in life and can be found in the many movies we may have watched.
  • what qualities Andrew believes makes a successful person.
  • about Andrew being an Officer to Prince Leonard of Hutt River.
  • what comparative advantage is and how Andrew explains it in an unusual but light-hearted way.
  • why Andrew believes we will never run out of resources and why we should not worry about scarcity.

Advice:

‘If you’re gonna have a lot of activities that you are doing, you need to be mentally organised and very good at prioritising.’

‘To supercharge your day, when you are getting to your tasks, do the one you hate most first… the rest of your day is a cinch.’

‘With books, the trick is you just write a thousand words a night… your subconscious mind works on it and when you sit down the following night it’s a little bit easier.  You have a full novel in two and half months.’

Personal Habits:

  • Andrew works extremely hard to get things done. He has blended comedy with economics to allow this dismal science to become enjoyable or entertaining.
  • Andrew believes that having the right mentor is hugely beneficial and such a relationship allows him to learn and focus on reaching small milestones. This has worked out favorably well for Andrew in the field of economics where he developed a strong set of opinions on some theoretical aspects of economics. By expanding his knowledge-base through economics books and the many discussions with his mentor, Gene Epstein, Andrew has opened new doors and created new opportunities that otherwise may not have been attainable. His love of economics, particularly the Austrian and Chicago Schools and libertarianism, has given Andrew a lot of material to work on for his comedic performances onstage, online and in books.
  • Andrew writes quite frequently and believes that constant writing will have a payoff in terms of the publication of a book.
  • Andrew writes ‘common sense economics for people who need to learn about common sense economics’ – Gene Epstein

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  • Andrew plays the ukelele but, unfortunately, it wasn’t ‘tuned’ correctly for him to give us a treat on this podcast. So, as an homage to Andrew, I changed the outro music theme of Economic Rockstar to one that uses a ukelele. I hope you enjoy it!

Takeaway:

On Economics and Comedy:

Economics is a dismal science, so if you can make it funny it sweetens it – Andrew Heaton

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On Humor and Economic Differences:

‘When you start arguing with somebody your adrenaline level shoots up.  Just on a biochemical level, you become much less able to hear what they are saying because you are taking a defensive posture.  Conversely, when you’re laughing, you produce endorphins.  And, if I can make you laugh, for a moment you are willing to listen to me – just for a moment.’

On Human Innovation Outpacing Declining Resources:

“We didn’t end the Stone Age because we ran out of stones”. – Andrew Heaton

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Recommended Books:

  • Laughter Is Better Than Communism by Andrew Heaton
  • Frank Got Abducted by Andrew Heaton
  • Re-Boot Grandpa by Andrew Heaton (coming soon in 2016)
  • Speech Trap Werewolf by Andrew Heaton (coming soon)
  • The Conscience of a Conservative by Barry Goldwater
  • Parliament of Whores: A Lone Humorist Attempts to Explain the Entire U.S.  Government by P.J. O’Rourke
  • Free To Choose by Milton Friedman and Rose Friedman
  • Life at the Bottom: The Worldview That Makes the Underclass by Theodore Dairymple
  • Economics In One Lesson by Henry Hazlitt
  • Nudge: Improving Decisions About Health, Wealth and Happiness by Richard H. Thaler and Cass R. Sunstein

Favorite Internet Resources:

  • Evernote

Where To Find Andrew Heaton:

  • Website: MightyHeaton
  • Twitter: @MightyHeaton

Contact Andrew and start a campaign if you would like him to create a ‘Mighty Heaton’ doll!

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