Economic Rockstar

Connecting Brilliant Minds in Economics and Finance

069: Diane Coyle on GDP, Its Shortcomings and Alternative Measures

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069: Diane Coyle on GDP, Its Shortcomings and Alternative Measures

Diane Coyle is Professor of Economics at the University of Manchester and runs the consultancy Enlightenment Economics.diane coyle

Diane is Vice-Chair of the BBC Trust and was a member of the Migration Advisory Committee and a member of the Competition Commission. She is also a visiting research associate at the University of Oxford’s Smith School of Enterprise and the Environment. 

Diane specialises in competition analysis and the economics of new technologies and globalisation.

Diane is the author of several books, including GDP: A Brief But Affectionate History, The Economics of Enough, The Soulful Science, Sex, Drugs and Economics and Paradoxes of Prosperity.

She was previously Economics Editor of The Independent and before that worked at the Treasury and in the private sector as an economist.

Diane has a PhD from Harvard and was awarded the OBE in January 2009.

Using happiness is an excuse for inactivity – Diane Coyle

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Influencers:

Peter Sinclair (University of Birmingham) and Ben Friedman (Harvard).

Economists:

In this interview, Diane mentions: Adam Smith, John Stuart Mill, Sir Charles Bean, Daron Acemoglu, Thomas Piketty, John McMillan, Tim Harford, Peter Sinclair (University of Birmingham) and Ben Friedman (Harvard).

Economics:

In this interview, Diane mentions: GDP, budget deficit, fiscal policy, monetary policy, interest rates, growth, employment, unemployment, Human Development Index, Gross National Happiness Index, happiness, hysteresis, inequality, financial markets, derivatives and leverage.

In this episode you will learn:

  • what is GDP and how it is measured.
  • the complications with understanding the meaning of GDP.
  • the historical origins of GDP and why it is used to measure our economy.
  • the complications in measuring GDP.
  • how GDP data is still collected in such an ‘old-fashioned’ way and the new methods to collecting data.
  • about the uncertainty and margin of error in GDP statistics.
  • why it is wrong to make fiscal policy, monetary policy and interest rate decisions on GDP statistics.
  • what proxy variables were used to measure economic activity before GDP was introduced.
  • why we should re-think the meaning of the economy.
  • why GDP today doesn’t work in its present form and if there is an alternative.
  • how countries can use GDP and GNP measures to portray different economic conditions.
  • the difference between GDP and GNP.
  • the concerning use of ‘administrative statistics’ by countries to falsify economic growth.
  • whether it’s correct to include illegal drug activity and prostitution in measuring GDP.
  • why measuring happiness and well-being should be of little importance when measuring GDP.
  • why Diane is sceptical about the Happiness Index.
  • the reason why economics was coined by Thomas Carlyle as the the ‘dismal science’.
  • who is to blame for the financial crisis of 2007/2008.
  • about the UK’s over-reliance on the financial sector and its role in measuring GDP.
  • about the uncertainty that would exist if the UK withdrew from the EU.
  • the policy factors required to create a sustainable society and a stable government.

 

It’s just so easy now to download data from the internet and run through statistical packages and get some results. And I think a lot of professional economists are guilty of not rethinking about their data enough – Diane Coyle

You cannot think about the economy mechanically – Diane Coyle

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The way we measure GDP now is really closely linked to Keynesian macroeconomic theory and a very famous definition he gave of  what total output in the economy is, that it’s consumer spending, government spending, investment spending and the balance of payments – Diane Coyle

There is no benefit for society in a lot of what happens in the financial markets – Diane Coyle

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Resources:

Favorite Internet Resource:

  • Twitter

If you pick the right people to follow it acts as a brilliant editor of all the interesting information that you might want to know and it’s like having a personalised newspaper – Diane Coyle

Books:

 

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048: Steve Hanke on Currency Boards, Moral Hazard and the Benefits of Privatization

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048: Steve Hanke on Currency Boards, Moral Hazard and the Benefits of Privatization

Steve Hanke is a Professor of Applied Economics, specializing in currency boards. He is Co-Director of the Institutesteve hanke for Applied Economics, Global Health, and the Study of Business Enterprise at The Johns Hopkins University in Baltimore.

Steve is a Senior Fellow and Director of the Troubled Currencies Project at the Cato Institute in Washington, D.C. and a member of the Charter Council of the Society of Economic Measurement and the Financial Advisory Council of the United Arab Emirates.

Previously, Professor Hanke was a Senior Economist on President Reagan’s Council of Economic Advisers and was also an Advisor to the Presidents of Bulgaria, Venezuela, and Indonesia.

He played an important role in establishing new currency regimes in Argentina, Estonia, Bulgaria, Bosnia-Herzegovina, Ecuador, Lithuania, and Montenegro. Professor Hanke has also advised the governments of many other countries, including Albania, Kazakhstan and Yugoslavia.

In 1998, Steve was named one of the twenty-five most influential people in the world by World Trade Magazine.

Professor Hanke is a well-known currency and commodity trader and serves as Chairman of Hanke-Guttridge Capital Management, LLC.

Steve Hanke’s most recent books are Zimbabwe: Hyperinflation to Growth (2008) and A Blueprint for a Safe, Sound Georgian Lari (2010).

Influencers:

Friedrich Hayek, Kenneth Boulding of the University of Colorado  and Bob Mundell

Economics:

In this interview, Steve mentions and discusses: currency boards, monetary policy, inflation, hyper-inflation, interest rates, currency reserves, optimum currency area, common currency, fiscal policy, moral hazard, eurozone, ECB, the World Bank, property rights, investment, central bank, dollarisation, interventionist policy, privatisation, hedging, Chicago Mercantile Exchange, futures contract and bitcoin.

Economists:

In this interview, Steve mentions and discusses: Kirk Schuller, Milton Friedman, Friedrich Hayek, Adam Smith, Robert Mundell and Kenneth Boulding.

There have only been 56 hyper-inflations in world history and I think I’ve stopped more of them than any living economist – Professor Steve Hanke

In this episode, you will learn:

  • what is a currency board and the reason why a country should resort to one.
  • about Bulgaria’s currency crisis in 1997, how hyper-inflation hit 142 percent per month and what Steve Hanke did to solve the problem.
  • the successful use of currency boards in Bulgaria in 1997 to significantly reduce inflation and interest rates.
  • why Bulgaria has one of the lowest fiscal deficits of any country.
  • about Yugoslavia’s hyper-inflation of 313 million percent in 1994.
  • why Montenegro dumped the Yugolsav Dinar for the Deutschmark during Slobodan Milosevic’s presidency of Yugoslavia.
  • how Montenegro will join the euro currency without having to do a currency changeover.
  • if it makes sense to leave a currency board to join a monetary union and giving up fiscal autonomy.
  • why it’s best for Bulgaria to stay outside the eurozone due to the issue of moral hazard.
  • why Greece ran up a fiscal deficit of 12.7% of GDP when the Maastricht Treaty stated a strict adherence to a maximum level of 3%.
  • about the Greek bailout of $472 billion and how it amounts to almost $43,000 for every man, woman and child in Greece.
  • how a currency board removes the moral hazard of a unified currency area by financing spending with current taxes or the private bond market.
  • if Greece should abandon the euro and set up a currency board and pegging their currency with the euro.
  • how a Greek currency board would operate if Greece left the eurozone.
  • about the success of the Hong Kong currency board and how it operates without a central bank.
  • if we are heading toward a one world currency.
  • why most small countries should abandon their currency and anchor it to the euro, dollar, yen or yuan.
  • whether Greece should sell off its ports, lands and other property to private investors just as Hayek proposed and Ronald Reagan did in the US in the 1980s.
  • about Ronald Reagan’s privatisation programme in the US in the early 1980s.
  • about the Bureaucratic Rule of Two and why privatisation is an optimal outcome for government, enterprise and society.
  • what Hayek was like as a person and what he thought of Ronald Reagan, The Intellectual.
  • about candling in the old days when grading eggs for futures contracts.

On Currency Boards:

A currency board system is a system in which you issue a domestic currency, which is anchored to a sound currency at a fixed exchange rate that’s fully convertible. The local currency is backed up with a 100% anchor currency’s reserves. So the local currency really becomes a clone of whatever the anchor currency happens to be.

The currency board is not allowed to emit credit to the government. If the government needs money for fiscal expansion, the only way to get this finance (in the form of your local currency) is to take hard currency in (like the euro) and exchange it for the local currency. Bulgaria has been doing this since 1997. The government cannot sell bonds to raise finance. They convert the euro (previously the Deutschmark) into their local currency, the lev, and can then carry out fiscal stimulus. Consequently, Bulgaria has one of the lowest fiscal deficits in Europe.

On Bulgaria and Why It Should Not Join the Eurozone:

“With the currency board, they (Bulgaria) ‘clone’ the euro, so they’re in a unified currency area with the eurozone but they’re not formally part of the eurozone itself. I’ve counselled the Bulgarians, and the best thing to do is to stay with that arrangement. And the reason why is that the eurozone, the common currency area, has a huge moral hazard associated with it. That is, something that creates bad behaviour encourages bad behaviour and Greece is a perfect example.” – Professor Steve Hanke

On the Greek Deceit and Its Fiscal Deficit:

“Greece entered the eurozone in 2001 on false pretences. They cooked the books and got in. They were allowed in the club even though the club knew the Greeks were lying in terms of their economics statistics.”

“The Greeks calculated that they could spend like drunken sailors, which they did and ran a completely irresponsible fiscal operation.”

“The moral hazard is you join a club and if you think the club won’t enforce its rules and won’t force you to tow the line, you will just go on your merry way spending and deficit spending and knowing, or at least thinking that, in this case the eurozone, would bail you out.”

Greece ranks 151 out of 189 countries for the ability of doing business. If you make a contract in Greece, the probability of having that contract enforced is very low by international standards. It’s like being in Zimbabwe. Greece is supposed to be part of the European Union and a modern country but it isn’t.

Greece should leave the eurozone, set up a currency board and re-introduce the Drachma. This would create fiscal discipline just like the situation in Bulgaria.

Quotes by Steve Hanke in Episode 048 of the Economic Rockstar Podcast:

I was hedging and trading when I was 14 years of age. I was trading with my grandfather – @steve_hanke

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Hong Kong was aways a unilateralist free trader. That encourages competition, entrepreneurship and productivity. The countries with open trade tend to be more free market in general and they grow more rapidly. – Steve Hanke

“About 90 Central Banks should just be done away with completely and either a currency board be put in or a stronger foreign currency like the dollar, the euro or the yen.” – Steve Hanke

“If you want lower fiscal deficits, lower inflation and higher rates of growth you adopt with a currency board system or dollarize” – Steve Hanke

If you want to reduce corruption you privatise. But the potential gains in terms of economic prosperity are enormous – @steve_hanke

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Europe’s lands are “a mere waste and loss of country in respect both of produce and population.” – Adam Smith

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Bitcoin has a unit of account problem – @steve_hanke

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On Hayek:

“He was delightful and charming and very interesting, particularly for Mrs Hanke and myself. One of Mrs Hanke’s Great Aunts was one of Hayek’s earlier loves of his life.”

Recommended Books:

Resources:

Where to Find Steve Hanke:

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040: Rebecca Harding on Trade Finance and How Delta Economics Can Help Identify Growth Opportunities World-wide

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040: Rebecca Harding on Trade Finance and How Delta Economics Can Help Identify Growth Opportunities World-wide

Dr Rebecca Harding is CEO of Delta Economics, which specialises in the area of Trade Finance. Rebecca is an independent economistRebecca Harding with an extensive background in modelling economic growth, trade, productivity, innovation and enterprise.

Rebecca is the author of nine books and has written over 250 articles on economic issues. She has held senior positions in leading academic, think-tank and corporate organisations, including roles at the London Business School, Deloitte and the Work Foundation.

Rebecca has advised the European Union and regional governments and agencies in the UK and Germany on innovation and enterprise policy.

Rebecca is a Board Member of the Society of Business Economists and a Board Member and Trustee of the German British Forum. In 2013, she was elected as a national representative of the European Movement UK.

Rebecca holds a BA in Economics and German and an MSc and PhD in the economics of Science and Innovation from the University of Sussex and writes on her blog rebeccanomics.com.

How Rebecca First Discovered Economics:

Rebecca was taught economics as a kid by her father who was a sociologist. “An economist who’s taught by a sociologist is quite an unusual thing. He started off with the fundamental principle that economics is wrong because people aren’t rational. So the first lesson in economics I had was my father telling me that the subject was wrong”.

I have a very eclectic background. I was taught by a sociologist. Some of my big influences when I was in university were in geopolitics and international relations. I’ve done a lot of political science and a lot of philosophy as well. And then, of course, I have an economics, mathematics and language background. So I’m a bit weird. I call myself a hybrid.

Find Out:

  • about Dr Harding’s company DeltaEconomics.
  • about the data used by DeltaEconomics and why it has developed its database of statistics.
  • what is Trade Finance and how it has experienced phenomenal growth in recent years.
  • how companies bridge the finance gap between the time they export goods to the time they receive payment.
  • what the challenges are with long-term growth in trade.
  • if there are inherent risks associated with the trade finance market as more sophisticated derivative and credit markets emerge.
  • about the inherent risks that may appear in the derivatives markets for trade finance.
  • if a market collapse could be the outcome of a non-compliant and unregulated trade finance securities market.
  • if could an implosion in trade finance is possible with large defaults in payments due mainly to the development of a derivatives and securities market.
  • if sovereign risk will become prominent if trade finance risk increases.
  • if enough data exists for trade finance to allow it to mature into a fully functioning wholesale and derivatives market.
  • about some risks to the global supply chain.
  • about the pioneers of innovation and productivity in economic theory.
  • how productivity and trade finance could be correlated.

Economics:

In this interview, Rebecca mentions and discusses: trade finance, credit, exports, growth, derivatives, securitisation, risk aversion, sovereign risk, business risk, contagion, commodities, inflation, fiscal policy, monetary policy, foreign direct investment, demographics, innovation and total factor productivity.

Economists:

In this interview, Rebecca mentions and discusses: Joseph Schumpeter, Christopher Freeman, Carlota Perez, J. K. Galbraith and Frances Coppola.

Influencers:

Karl Marx, Christopher Freeman, Carlota Perez, Joseph Schumpeter, J. K. Galbraith,

On Delta Economics:

“For trade data, it’s the best platform in the world – it’s corrected, it’s clean, it’s comprehensive and it covers continents like Africa all on one platform. It gives clients information on what the trading opportunities are” – Rebecca Harding, CEO of Delta Economics.

“We view the world from a trade perspective. Trade is important because it’s how businesses interact with one another.”

Delta Economics – It’s macroeconomic big data! – Rebecca Harding

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What we’ve done is pioneer the way in which big data is used in economics – Rebecca Harding

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What is Trade Finance?

Trade Finance is everything that drives trade itself. From a financial perspective, if you look at the value of world trade, about 80% of that is financed by banks or backed up by big insurance companies or finance through export credit agencies. It’s a huge market and grew very quickly in the from 2000 to 2007. The reason being was due to emerging markets entering into global trade in a very much aggressive way. Banks saw huge opportunities for financing trade.

Essentially, if you are trading with another company in another country, then what you need is some kind of bridging finance between the gap from when you put your goods onto a ship or an aeroplane and when it’s received by the person in the other country and paid for. So what this company needs is some kind of financing gap between those two points. That’s what trade finance is.

By including trade finance data into forecasting, you get much more accurate forecasts as to what’s going to happen to trade. In 2007, there was a tightening of credit available to businesses since the credit in the financial markets of developed countries had locked up. Subsequently, much of the trade finance went to emerging Asia and emerging Latin America and financed huge growth there.

The whole Trade Finance market is largely driven through very large finance houses such as JP Morgan, HSBC, Barclays, Bank of America, Merrill Lynch and BNP Paribas. These very big global banks are the ones that are involved on a day-to-day basis with the trade-receivables, the credit lines, the letters of credit, the open account and the working capital.

What’s also interesting about Trade Finance is that you also have quasi-government agencies and export credit agencies, which are part of the private sector and which are sometimes supported by the public sector. There is also a massive insurance market and legal sector attached to it. With such growth in the Trade Finance market, there is interest now coming from private sector private equity companies who see an opportunity to buy the debt and securitise it and actually use it as an asset class. What Delta Economics also do is it allows the data user to understand trade finance as an asset class. Companies can securitise the debt and trade that securitisation. The derivatives market will be an important component of this.

The Trade Finance market is estimated to be worth $7.4 trillion annually. There are many companies , like Lloyds, who will be putting security behind the money they are backing up.

It was seen as a way of fuelling long-term economic growth through trade.

Data Sources Mentioned in this Episode:

Recommended Books:

Where to Find Rebecca Harding:

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