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Economic Rockstar

Connecting Brilliant Minds in Economics and Finance

165: Stephen Wright on Valuing the Stock Market Using Equity q

November 9, 2018 by Frank

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165: Stephen Wright on Valuing the Stock Market Using Equity q


Stephen Wright is Professor of Economics at Birkbeck College, University of London.

Previously Professor Wright worked at the Bank of England and Cambridge University.

He is co-author of ‘Valuing Wall Street: Protecting Wealth in Turbulent Times’ – an informative book published in 2000 warning of the high values placed on stocks at that time.

In this episode we discuss his work on valuing the stock market using a variant of Tobin’s q – a valuation method put forward by the late James Tobin (Nobel Prize in Economics, 1981).

Links:

  • Stephen Wright’s academic page
  • Wright, S. (2004). Measures of Stock Market Value and Returns for the US Nonfinancial Corporate Sector, 1900-2002 Review of Income and Wealth, 50 (4) pp 561-584.
  • Dataset for the calculation of equity q

Books:

  • Valuing Wall Street: Protecting Wealth in Turbulent Times by Andrew Smithers and Stephen Wright
  • Irrational Exuberance by Robert Shiller

 

Patreon

If you’re a fan of the podcast and would like to show your support in anyway, please check out my Patreon page at www.patreon.com/economicrockstar where you can sign up for any of the awards for as little as $1 a month or you can simply follow me on Instagram, the Economic Rockstar Facebook page or on Twitter or simply recommend the show to a friend, especially if they have never had the opportunity to study economics.

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098: Kirk Du Plessis on Options Trading and Creating on Online Teaching and Trading Platform

August 11, 2016 by Frank

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098: Kirk Du Plessis on Options Trading and Creating on Online Teaching and Trading Platform

Kirk Du Plessis is a full-time options trader, real estate investor, stay-at-home Dad and personal trading coach.Kirk Du Plessis Economic Rockstar

His background and experience includes time on Wall Street as an investment banker, a senior stock analyst and a senior loan officer.

Kirk is the Founder and Fund Manager at Option Alpha, an online education and training platform for options traders with students from 42 different countries around the world.

You can grab his completely FREE 12-Part Video Training Course which will help you discover how to trade options for consistent monthly income over at optionalpha.com.

Kirk was recently featured in Barron’s Magazine as a contributor to their Annual Broker’s Review.

Kirk’s podcast, The Option Alpha Podcast, features great tips, advice and explanations on all things options trading.

In this Episode, Kirk mentions and discusses:

options, options trading,derivatives, calls, puts, bull call spreads, straddles, stock market, efficient market hypothesis, technical analysis, wasting asset, time decay, turtle traders, delta, survivorship bias, discipline, arbitrage, black swan and leverage.

Podcasts:

  • The Option Alpha Podcast
  • SPI 175: The 8-Year Hobby Blog That Quickly Transformed into a 6-Figure Per Month Business with Kirk Du Plessis
  • EonFire 1092: Learn how to trade options from home with Kirk Du Plessis

Links:

  • Turtle Trader

 

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005: Hector Avellaneda on Buying Gold to Protect Your Wealth from a Dollar Crisis

November 19, 2014 by Frank

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Episode 005: Hector Avellaneda on Buying Gold to Protect Your Wealth from a Dollar Crisis

Hector AvellanedaHector Avellaneda is from Houston, Texas and has a passion for entrepreneurship, economics, finance and gold. This, however, only materialized after Hector came face to face with a untold truth and one of the harshest lessons that only a life experience can teach you, as long as you are willing to dig deep in search for answers.

Hector, the son of Mexican immigrants to the US, grew up in poverty and was statistically destined to a life of poverty in adulthood. However, Hector wanted to defy this probability and worked extremely hard in school. In typical fashion, Hector accumulated college debt and was ironically facing a poorer life than his own parents despite a larger mean income.

Hector questioned the college debt system and deeply explored how US citizens have grown accustomed to taking on such debt. Further research led him to realise that middle-class America could see their wealth wiped out due to an impending dollar crisis. Subsequently, Hector wrote an economics and finance-related book to share his findings and to suggest what you can do to protect your wealth.

Economics and Finance Themes:

In this interview, Hector mentions and discusses: poverty, wealth, college debt, economic crisis, the Great Depression, loans, credit card debt, poverty trap, psychological effects of poverty, deficit, free markets, incentives, purchasing power, inflation, taxes, quantitative easing, money supply, the Minsky Moment, financial literacy, properties of money, fiat currency, the US Federal Reserve, stock markets, crypto-currencies, the Gold Standard.

Hector’s Influencers:

His dad and a college counsellor. Find out more in his book ‘De-CLASS-ified’ (see below for a link to Amazon and get an e-copy on Amazon for a bargain $2.99).

In this episode, you will learn:

  • how Hector had all the hallmarks of continuing to live a life of poverty in America.
  • about Hector being bullied in school because of the charitable clothes he wore .
  • how Hectors’ father and mother’s sense of hard-work and money management became naturally ingrained in him.
  • how Hector defied and beat the statistical odds of remaining poor for life due to a strong work ethic and a desire to succeed.
  • how hard work in school can open up many opportunities in life including an internship with NASA.
  • the importance of being mentored.
  • how easy credit for college education made Hector ‘s financial position worse off than his parents.
  • what triggered Hector into discovering the truth about the American economy and the college debt system.
  • the risks in the US economy.
  • why the US could be faced with a massive default on student loans and what is triggering this today.
  • how it became acceptable to borrow to pay for college.
  • why Hector’s $50,000 student debt became a blessing in disguise.
  • how Hector’s research into the US college debt crisis resulted in him writing an economics and finance book without having a background in these disciplines.
  • why the middle class in America is about to collapse financially.
  • why the US government will seize money from an American workers’ wages.
  • what type of college degree is not in demand in US anymore.
  • what you should do today when making a college or subject choice.
  • what it takes to have financial and economic freedom.
  • about the 7 properties of money.
  • what countries are doing today with their dollar reserves.
  • about who actually owns the Federal Reserve Bank of America. Hint: It’s not the US government!
  • what you can do to protect your wealth from being transferred to others.
  • who are buying up gold and for what reason.

On Living in Poverty:

  • ‘I was pretty poor. I lived in a small wooden type of house with a sheet metal roof’ – Hector Avellaneda
  • ‘Growing up I saw my parents argue and fight about money and not having enough money to take a family trip or a vacation or just be able to enjoy a day out on the town and so my parents were always very stressed out, always kind of arguing and fighting’ -Hector Avellaneda
  • ‘I was made fun off in school because a lot of clothes that I wore was donated from the local church or local program, a local donation program’ – Hector Avellaneda
  • ‘I always told myself that I was going to do whatever it took to make sure that I was successful in life and to make sure that I got out of that poverty that I had seen as a child’ – Hector Avellaneda

Advice:

  • “Today we need computer scientists, we need computer programmers, we need engineers – those are the degrees that are in demand  and I myself sit on the board directors of a non-profit organization here in Houston that actually encourages kids to go to college and major in things like engineering, major in things like computer science because I think those are the degrees that we need in today’s economy” – Hector Avellaneda.

  • ‘To have financial and economic freedom, I had to become an entrepreneur’ – Hector Avellaneda

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  • “For anyone who is going to college or who is thinking about going to college today, I would say ‘do some real research and figure out what pay expectations you will have upon graduation’ and, with that said, make sure that, if you are going to go to college, major in a degree that will be able to sustain your way of life that you want to live and if you don’t want to major in something like engineering or computer science because that’s just not what you are passionate for then don’t take on any student debt” – Hector Avellaneda.

  • Those holding onto paper assets are at risk of losing it all to those holding real tangible assets like gold and silver, land and claims on oil fields.

Personal Habits:

  • A hard worker, head-strong, determined, passionate and a desire to find out the truth through research, self-education, reading and learning.
  • Hector had a desire to find out what went wrong in his life as he was mis-sold the American idea of taking on college debt . With a limited exposure to finance and economics in college, $50,000 of college debt and unemployed due to the Great Recession of 2008, Hector read widely to learn and understand about the truth behind the US economy, the trillions of dollars of debt and the risks of a mass student loan default and a dollar crisis. 

Takeaway:

‘We have a generation of college students who are graduating into financial bondage’ – Hector

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The free markets have been distorted due to all the incentives that have been created in the US economy.

‘Paper money eventually returns to its intrinsic value – zero’ – Voltaire

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Before making a college decision, do a course that will allow you to earn an income to pay off your debt, otherwise do not take on debt.

Increase your understanding of financial literacy. Read books on money.

Schools and Universities need to teach more economics, finance and financial literacy subjects to all students.

Self-education is very important – read books and get access to the necessary information online.

‘Money is nothing more than an economic tool by which we convert our time and freedom’ – Hector

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Recommended Books:

  • The Death of Money by James Rickards
  • De-CLASS-ified: The Fall of the Middle Class and Rise of the Internet Entrepreneur by Hector Avellaneda

Favorite Internet Resource:

  • iCloud

Where to Find Hector Avellaneda:

  • Gold and Silver Buyer Club
  • New Class Rising
  • Podcast on iTunes
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001: Jason Stapleton on Technical Trading Systems and Losing Everything on Penny Stocks

November 11, 2014 by Frank

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Episode 001: Jason Stapleton on Technical Trading Systems and Losing Everything on Penny Stocks

Jason StapletonJason Stapleton is one of the founders of Trade Empowered and a managing partner of Harborsite Capital.  Jason’s heavy focus  on trader psychology, along with his in-depth knowledge of advanced technical analysis, gives him the unique opportunity to work with traders of all skills and levels, helping them to achieve a higher level of success and understanding in the foreign exchange market.

Economics and Finance Themes:

In parts 1 and 2 of the Economic Rockstar interview with Jason Stapleton, Jason mentions and discusses: technical analysis, trading strategies, stock market psychology, behavioral economics, herding behavior, Gartley patterns, harmonic price patterns, Fibonacci numbers, fundamental analysis, probability, the Turtle Trader story, rational and irrational behavior.

Jason’s Influencers:

His business partner Todd Browne, options trader John Carter, systems trader Larry Hite and trader Mike Bellafiore.

Find out:

In this first part of the Economic Rockstar interview with Jason Stapleton, Jason shares with us some thoughts on technical analysis:

  • how Jason lost all his money when he first started out trading in penny stocks.
  • the number one reason why people become traders.
  • how to create a competitive edge in the financial markets.
  • about systems trading and the Gartley pattern.
  • how working on probabilities is better than certainties in trading.
  • the importance of stop-losses.
  • the importance of backtesting.
  • how price patterns can reflect human behavior and and how you can trade based on the expectations of other traders’ decisions.

You can check out and listen to the second part of this interview here.

Advice:

  • Jason advises that the key to successful trading is to develop a trading strategy and emphasises the benefits of backtesting – “the real benefit of backtesting is the psychological aspect.”  Find out more on the benefits of backtesting in this interview.
  • On stop-losses: “Know where you’re getting out before you get in.”

‘Shut off the noise, avoid financial news TV and stay out of trading forums.’ – Jason Stapleton

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  • “Most people in life settle for some level of mediocrity between total failure and their true potential. They just settle in life. I would just simply say don’t settle. I don’t care what it is you do, don’t settle. Be exceptional at what you do.”

Personal Habits:

A background in the Marine Corp instilled a discipline that Jason could use to his advantage in trading financial markets.  Jason admits that he was average among his group at the Marine Corp but he was willing to work longer, harder and faster than anybody else to be successful. Jason carried this attitude with him to learn how to trade the markets, experiencing losses and gains along the way and eventually building his multi-million dollar business, Trade Empowered, from a $900 initial investment.

Takeaway:

Don’t settle for mediocrity. People will drag you down. Be exceptional at what you do.

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Recommended Books:

  • Trade What You See: How To Profit From Pattern Recognition by Larry Pesavento
  • Harmonic Trading, Volume One: Profiting from the Natural Order of the Financial Markets by Scott M. Carney
  • Harmonic Trading, Volume Two: Advanced Strategies for Profiting from the Natural Order of the Financial Markets by Scott M. Carney
  • Technical Analysis of the Financial Markets: A Comprehensive Guide to Trading Methods and Applications by John J. Murphy
  • Market Wizards by Jack Schwager
  • One Good Trade by Mike Bellafiore

Favorite Internet Resource:

  • Trading View

Where to Find Jason Stapleton:

  • Trade Empowered
  • Jason Stapleton on YouTube
  • The Live Show
  • Learn the Secret to Trading Fibonacci
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Frank Conway

Frank Conway is founder of Economic Rockstar and lecturer of economics, finance and statistics. Read More…

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