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Economic Rockstar

Connecting Brilliant Minds in Economics and Finance

075: Kate Bahn on Monopsony in the Market for Teachers and the Economics of Retirement

March 3, 2016 by Frank

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075: Kate Bahn on Monopsony in the Market for Teachers and the Economics of Retirement

Kate Bahn is an economist at the Center for American Progress in Washington, D.C.Kate Bahn Economic Rockstar 2

Kate is also the co-founder and managing editor of Lady Economist, an amazing blog with rich content on how economics impacts women and girls.

Kate’s economics writing has been featured in the Guardian, the Nation, the Chronicle of Higher Education and Good Magazine among others.

She is also an active member of the International Association for Feminist Economics.

Kate received her PhD in Economics from the New School for Social Research, where she also worked as a researcher for the Schwartz Center for Economic Policy Analysis.

Kate’s scholarly research includes labor economics, gender in the economy, caring labor, and retirement.

Influencers:

Julie Nelson and Nancy Folbre

Economics:

In this episode, Kate mentions and discusses: monopsony, rents, labor markets, deadweight loss, retirement and risk aversion.

Economists:

In this episode, Kate mentions and discusses: Justin Wolfers, Nancy Folbre, Marina Adshade, Julie Nelson, Joan Robinson and Mesude Kongar 

In this episode you will learn:

  • what is a monopsony market
  • why early-career teachers leave their profession within the first five years.
  • about the International Association for Feminist Economics.
  • about the economics of retirement.
  • whether women are more risk averse than men or whether it is gender-stereotyping.
  • which US President should be removed from a US bill and what female should replace him.
  • and much more.

Research by Kate Bahn:

  • Bahn, Kate. (2015, July 17). Monopsony in Caring Labor: Job Search Models with Care as a Job Characteristic. Annual Conference of the International Association of Feminist Economics.
  • Bahn, Kate. (2013, July 10). Monopsony in Caring Labor: Estimating Labor Supply Elasticity of Teachers. Annual Conference of the International Association of Feminist Economics.
  • Bahn, Kate. (2013, January 5). Early Career Teachers and Gender Effects of Labor Market Decisions: Duration Analysis of the Beginning Teacher Longitudinal Study. Panel of the International Association of Feminist Economics at the American Social Science Academy Annual Conference.
  • Ghilarducci, Teresa, Saad-Lessler, Joelle, & Bahn, Kate. “Are U.S. Workers Ready for Retirement?” Journal of Pension Benefits. Winter (2015).

Other Writings:

Joseph Stiglitz taught me how to date by Kate Bahn

Books:

  • Invisible Heart by Nancy Folbre
  • Feminism, Objectivity and Economics by Julie Nelson
  • Angry Grad by Leah Bell

Podcast Episodes:

  • Leah Bell
  • Nancy Folbre
  • Marina Adshade

Papers:

  • Barber, R and T. Odean, (2001). Boys Will be Boys: Gender, Overconfidence, and Common Stock Investment. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, pg: 261- 292.

Conference:

  • International Association for Feminist Economics (IAFFE)

Where to Find Kate:

  • Twitter: @LipstickEcon
  • Website: www.ladyeconomist.com
  • Centre for American Progress
  • International Association for Feminist Economics

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074: Peter Leeson on The Invisible Hook: The Hidden Economics of Pirates

February 24, 2016 by Frank

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074: Peter Leeson on The Invisible Hook: The Hidden Economics of Pirates

Peter T. Leeson is Duncan Black Professor of Economics and Law at George Mason University.Peter Leeson

He is also a Senior Fellow at the F.A. Hayek Program for the Advanced Study of Philosophy, Politics, and Economics as well as the North American Editor of Public Choice.

Formerly, Peter was Visiting Professor of Economics at the University of Chicago, Visiting Fellow in Political Economy and Government at Harvard University, and F.A. Hayek Fellow at the London School of Economics.

Peter is author of The Invisible Hook: The Hidden Economics of Pirates and Anarchy Unbound: Why Self-Governance Works Better Than You Think.

Peter can be found at PeterLeeson.com.

Economists:

In this episode, Peter mentions and discusses: Ludwig von Miss, F. A. Hayek, Gary Becker, Karl Menger, Steven Levitt, Robin Hanson, Karl Marx, Adam Smith and Peter Boettke.

Economics:

In this episode, Peter mentions and discusses: price theory, human behaviour, Austrian Economics, Chicago School of Economics, economics of self-governance, rational thinking, profit maximisation, incentives, social insurance, externalities, unemployment, governance, self-governance, public goods and rational choice theory.

Pirates were economic actors but they were criminals. Criminal behaviour, as some had suggested, is not very amenable to the economic way of thinking.But Gary Becker pioneered research demonstrating that that wasn’t so.

In this episode you will learn:

  • about the similarities and differences between Austrian Economics and Becker’s thinking in the Chicago School of Economics.
  • why Peter decided to study the economics of pirates.
  • about the scientific approach to economic thinking.
  • how limitations to data restrict analytical research and how historical economic thinking can be used as a form of empirical analysis.
  • how using the economic narrative is just as effective as the mathematical regressions to explain theoretical concepts.
  • the similarities between The Invisible Hand and The Invisible Hook.
  • how pirates were rational thinkers and social revolutionaries.
  • how a hierarchy was established on a pirate ship using the Pirate Code.
  • how the Pirate Code created a social order that was economically beneficial to the crew.
  • about the constitutional democracy that pirates established onboard their ship and the misperceptions we had of an autocratic captain.
  • about some rules, codes of conduct and dispute resolution mechanisms that existed on a pirate ship.
  • how pirates were incentivised to engage in battle with a social fund (moral hazard) that was a predecessor to today’s social insurance policy.
  • how the pirate code minimised or eliminated the impact of a negative externality on a crew member or the whole crew.
  • how Peter’s book dedication, in the form of a marriage proposal, worked out.
  • when did piracy at sea begin and when did the romanticised period of piracy, as we know it, occur.
  • how are the pirates of the early 18th Century, such as Captain Blackbeard, so different to the pirates of today, such as the Somali pirates.
  • how sailors found solace and refuge as buccaneers and pirates after wars, such as the War of the Spanish Succession.
  • why unemployed sailors became buccaneers and pirates.
  • the risk-reward ratio of becoming a pirate.
  • whether pirates actually buried their treasure.
  • how an enterprising society was established at the land bases of pirates.
  • what pirates spent their spoils and treasures on.
  • the signalling effect of the Jolly Roger flag and why pirates used it as they approached a merchant ship.
  • how an ‘honor among thieves’ and collusive agreements between pirate groups allowed them to avoid attacking each other.
  • how coast guards, who were legally allowed to plunder merchant ships, often used the Jolly Roger flag as a signal to deceive their subjects into thinking they were pirates for the purpose of avoiding a bloody battle.
  • why coast guards used the Jolly Roger flag to cash in on the reputation of pirates.
  • if self-governance is effective and more successful that government.
  • whether the free-rider problem would exist in a self-governed economy regarding public goods.

Links:

  • Gary Becker’s Centre on Chicago Price Theory
  • Becker Friedman Institute for Research in Economics: The University of Chicago
  • Episode 072: F. A. Hayek
  • Episode 073: Robin Hanson
  • Episode 055: David Skarbek
  • Journal of Political Economy

Papers:

  • The Invisible Hook: The Law and Economics of Pirate Tolerance by Peter T. Leeson
  • Human Sacrifice by Peter T. Leeson in Review of Behavioral Economics. 

Books:

  • The Invisible Hook by Peter Leeson
  • Anarchy Unbound by Peter Leeson
  • Living Economics by Peter Boettke
  • Economic Approach to Human Behaviour by Gary Becker
  • Human Action: A Treatise on Economics by Ludwig von Mises
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073: Robin Hanson on The Age of Em and How Brain Emulations Will Double Economic Growth Every Month

February 18, 2016 by Frank

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073: Robin Hanson on The Age of Em and How Brain Emulations Will Double Economic Growth Every Month

Robin Hanson is associate professor of economics at George Mason University. He is also a research associate at robin hansonOxford’s Future of Humanity Institute and chief scientist at Consensus Point.

Professor Hanson has diverse research interests, including spatial product competition, health incentive contracts, reversible computation, the origin of life, the survival of humanity, very long-term economic growth, growth given machine intelligence, and interstellar colonization

Robin has pioneered prediction markets, also known as information markets and idea futures, since 1988.

His passion is to understand everything, and to save the world. He is addicted to “viewquakes”, loves to argue one on one, and values honesty and passion. He blogs at OvercomingBias.com which has had over eight million visits.

His book The Age of Em: Work, Love and Life When Robots Rule the Earth will be available in May 2016, and The Elephant in the Brain, co-authored with Kevin Simler, in spring 2017.

Economists:

In this episode, Robin mentions and discusses: Thomas Malthus and Cass Sunstein

Economics:

In this episode, Robin mentions and discusses: emulation economy, economic growth, labor, competition, wages, subsistence economy, capital, land, slaves, supply and demand.

In this episode you will learn:

  • about Robin Hanson’s work in economics.
  • what is The Age of Em and how it could double economic growth every month rather than the current doubling of growth every 15 years.
  • what are brain emulations.
  • what is a singularity and if we will have one within the next 200 years.
  • how the workforce of the future look.
  • how humans will retire and have brain emulations do their work.
  • what will a brain emulation be like.
  • if humans will revert to subsistence levels of existence as predicted by Malthus.
  • about the labor market of the future and whether wages will be competed away with humans and ems living on the margin.
  • how Robin anticipates living in the future and how you can too.
  • why space exploration and space colonization will be delayed until after the rapid and exponential economic expansion brought about by brain emulation.
  • whether you can have a brain emulation of your own brain or whether the process will be reserved to a few hundred people who are best equipped to perform certain tasks.
  • how the relationship between humans and robots is portrayed as a dichotomy – a heaven or hell scenario – but this will not be the case with the technology available using brain emulations.
  • how you can be ‘teleported’ from one device to another without being physically affected.
  • how Robin used economic theory to explain the economy of the future where brain emulations are the drivers of growth.
  • why the Age of Em will last for about 2 years.
  • about Robin Hanson’s request to have only his head cryogenically frozen and what he hopes to achieve.

Paper:

  • Hanson, R. (1994). If Uploads Come First: The Crack of a Future Dawn 

Podcast Episodes:

  • Manu Saadia

Books:

  • The Age of Em by Robin Hanson
  • Trekonomics by Manu Saadia
  • The World According to Star Wars by Cass Sunstein

Resources:

  • The Age of Em
  • www.overcomingbias.com
  • Future of Humanity Institute
  • Consensus Point

 

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072: Friedrich A. Hayek – That Entrepreneurial Knowledge is Situational and Commonsensical, Not Scientific

February 11, 2016 by Frank

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072: Friedrich A. Hayek – That Entrepreneurial Knowledge is Situational and Commonsensical, Not Scientific

HayekIn this essay, I present a personal essay based on the work of Freidrich A. Hayek, most notably concerning his thoughts and discussion on how knowledge cannot be scientifically calculated for use within a centrally planned organisation, which is argued in his own essays ‘The Use of Knowledge in Society’ (1945) and ‘Competition as a Discovery Procedure’ (1984). 

 

That Entrepreneurial Knowledge is Situational and Commonsensical, Not Scientific

Part One:

Explanation and Development of the Thesis

In Austrian theory, that entrepreneur is an agent whose character has been carefully explored. Such on entrepreneur operates in a market economy, which is referred to as a ‘discovery process’ by Hayek¹. That entrepreneurs knowledge of the market is imperfect due to do reasoning that knowledge is dispersed amongst the undertakers of the business.

Entrepreneurs possess a certain degree of knowledge dust is unique to them individually and one that cannot be expressed quantitatively. Thus, Hayek disregards all neo-classical and Keynesian economics as they seem to dismiss the role of the entrepreneur via use of quantitative analysis (of averages and aggregates) in measuring equilibrium points to which all entrepreneurs must strive towards and achieve.

The unquantifiable (tacit) knowledge, possessed by the entrepreneur, is therefore ignored when scientific knowledge is made available. As Hayek stated ‘the knowledge of the particular circumstances of time and place… is… the body of very important but unorganized knowledge which cannot possibly be called scientific in the sense of knowledge of general rules’ (1945).

In the writings of Hayek, sScientific knowledge is associated with centralized planning whereas entrepreneurial knowledge is associated with a market order where knowledge is dispersed and situational. The latter includes tacit knowledge, as it is not directly communicable.

‘Every individual… possesses unique information of which beneficial use… [is] based on… [the] knowledge of people of local conditions and of special circumstances… of the fleeting moment not known to others… The sort of knowledge with which I have been concerned is knowledge of the kind which by its nature cannot enter into statistics and therefore cannot be conveyed to any central authority and statistical form’ (Hayek, 1945: 251).

The market economy can only operate at its most optimum level given the knowledge of entrepreneurs who mutually adjust via negative feedback. There is no role for scientific knowledge, as such use would ‘collectively’ combine the knowledge of all entrepreneurs in some mathematical formulation, thereby ignoring situational and commonsensical knowledge.

The market is a ‘discovery process’ for all undertakers who aim to eliminate in perfect knowledge by receiving ‘information for judgments about… matters by reading…, watching…, experiencing…, chatting…, strolling… Much of what he thereby observes – or senses – he could not express in explicit words or numbers’ (Yeager, 1996).

Thus, the entrepreneur will base decisions regarding cost minimisation, prices, allocation of resources, etc. on what they know and what they believe is the right and optimum choice. Scientific knowledge is irrelevant, as it does not quantify the ‘feel’ for the market. It aims for an equilibrium point in time, is costly, his complicated and fails to adjust to changes in the market at the required time.

Tacit knowledge is often not consciously known, even to those who process it, and come never be communicated to a central authority or used in their scientific evaluations. Such entrepreneurial knowledge is unknowingly transmitted throughout the economy as an unintended consequence of individuals pursuing their own ends. The unintended consequences of an economy fail to be recognized by those reliant on scientific knowledge, whereas the entrepreneur with situational knowledge, will recognize such and act accordingly.

Spontaneity is key to the entrepreneur and utmost for the market economy, thereby suggesting that the process towards obtaining equilibrium is a never ending process. As Knight put it, ‘business decisions deal with situations which are far too unique, for any sort of statistical tabulation to have any value for guidance’ (1971: 231).

Part Two:

A] Argument Against the Thesis

Hayek’s thesis that entrepreneurial knowledge is not scientific has drawn the attention of its critics, most notably Lange, Dickinson and Stiglitz. All three believe that entrepreneurial knowledge consists of scientific information as it practically improves business decisions.

Lange (1938) proposed that scientific knowledge of, say, conditional prices for all goods and factors of production should be made available and that these could be taken as parameters in the decision-making process of the entrepreneur. The result would speed up the equilibrium process and enhance the knowledge of the entrepreneur regarding market indicators.

‘the Central Planning Board has a much wider knowledge of what is going on in the whole economic system than any private entrepreneur can ever have’ (Lange, 1938).

In the advent of supercomputers, Lange stated that entrepreneurs could use scientific information to aid in their decision-making and that such scientific knowledge could be obtained in real-time given the demands of the market.

Dickinson agreed with Lange, stating that rational calculation under socialism was at least theoretically possible. Dickinson believed that any economy could be formerly represented by a Walrasian system of equations from which the undertakers in the market base their decisions to achieve an equilibrium point. Such scientific knowledge is vital for entrepreneurs if they wish to remain competitive and understand the direction taken by the market as a whole.

Stiglitz refers to ‘imperfect knowledge’ as known-to-be-available information that is costly to produce. Stiglitz states that such information, not known by the entrepreneur, could be obtained by acquiring statistical and computable data about the markets which can aid in the process of eliminating the imperfect knowledge of the entrepreneur and reduce uncertainty and risk.

Each decision is made within a well-defined framework made up of a given objective function, a given set of resource constraints, and a given set of technologically or economically means of transforming resources into desired objectives².

A famous physicist, Lord Kelvin, stated that ‘When you cannot measure your knowledge is meager and unsatisfactory’³ a statement that many critics of Hayek will stand by.

B] Arguments in Favor of the Thesis:

The main body of argument for Hayek’s thesis came from Hayek himself, although many supported his writings such as Kirzner, Gray and Yeager. Hayek argued that entrepreneurial knowledge is by no means scientific. Knowledge is dispersed throughout society and it is embodied in habits and dispositions of the entrepreneur.

Entrepreneurial knowledge ‘is “knowing where to look for knowledge” rather than knowledge of substantive market information’ (Kirzner, 1973: 68). Entrepreneurial knowledge cannot be quantified or recognized by a central planner or any undertaker in a market who uses a scientific approach.

‘Pantometria’ fails to recognize the tacit knowledge of the entrepreneur and, thus, competitive market behavior relying on scientific knowledge, cannot be a true reflection of entrepreneurial undertakings.

‘there is… a body of very important but unorganised knowledge which cannot possibly be called scientific… the knowledge of the particular circumstances of time and place… every individual… possesses unique information of which beneficial use might be made, but of which use can be made only if the decisions depending on it are left to him or are made with his active co-operation’ (Hayek, 1968, 250).

In response to Langes criticisms, Hayek states that the ‘imperfect knowledge’ of the entrepreneur is actually ‘previously unthought of knowledge’ which must be discovered by the entrepreneur without any need for science. The entrepreneur, given unique and tacit knowledge, can’t adapt to changing requirements of the market process.

Those who possessed scientific knowledge aim for an equilibrium point in time but fail to recognize that ‘long before [equilibrium] is reached the circumstances to which the local efforts adapt themselves will have changed themselves’. Only the entrepreneur who possesses unique and tacit knowledge will ‘change their plans in the direction made necessary by actual changes’.

‘One major flaw in all proposals for the economic planning is that they are all bound to attempt to transform entrepreneurial perception of opportunities into mechanical procedures for resource-utilization and to incur vast losses of efficiency in so attempting’ (Gray, 1998: 38).

With the application of scientific knowledge, entrepreneurs misinterpret the markers process and, as such, tacit knowledge is lost when averages and aggregates our computed. Entrepreneurs, due to the ‘organised complexity [of the market process] where we expect to find permanent constant relations between aggregates or averages’, must not rely upon scientific knowledge.

Part Three:

Argued Statement of Writer’s Own Position

  1. Acceptance of the Thesis

Having read the relevant literature and wait of the arguments for and against the thesis, the author is in the position of agreeing with Hayek’s thesis.

It is true that not all knowledge can be observed and represented by variables to be inserted into complicated scientific models and conceptual frameworks. Each entrepreneur possesses unique knowledge that orders do not have. Such knowledge is based upon intuition, beliefs, sense and first-hand know-how, which is collectively and instinctively used by entrepreneur to achieve his/her ends.

We human beings live in a world where science seems to preoccupy our minds and influence our decisions. However, such scientific knowledge it is based on the law of averages and probabilities, which persuade entrepreneurs that some optimum outcome will be achieved at some point in time.

The author shares the view of Hayek that there exists a body of knowledge that is ‘particular to the circumstances of time and place’ which cannot be detected, quantified or interpreted by any scientific machine, framework or equation. For example, become attrition’s aim to explain the relationships between variables, but there exists an error term in each regression due to unknown variables that are omitted from the model.

Introducing the case of the BSE crisis, a conflict of interest between individual and scientific knowledge is apparent. It is all well and good to provide statistical data, but entrepreneurs, who operate in the beef industry, do not need such information, how’s they already knew of the crisis when it became apparent.

Such knowledge was situational to entrepreneur and it was common sense that the affected cattle would be a threat to his/her undertakings. The entrepreneur, by a discovery process, will operate in the best possible market available under such a crisis. No scientific knowledge is required in predicting an equilibrium point for the farmer.

2. Objection to the Thesis

Despite accepting that entrepreneurial knowledge is situational and commonsensical, the author shares the view of Stiglitz that’s of entrepreneurs cannot afford to be ignorant of the fact that scientific methods are vital in expanding the decision making process of the entrepreneur. It is evident to every undertaker in a market. Scientific evaluations of costs, prices and other indices are available I’m very helpful in finalizing decisions.

Part Three

Responses to Objections Against the Writer’s Position:

In the previous section, it had been acknowledged that entrepreneurial knowledge is situational and commonsensical, but it is the belief of the writer that such knowledge is incomplete without the use of scientific knowledge.

Scientific knowledge is considered a net benefactor to entrepreneurs as it provides vital information that can almost drastically eliminate imperfections of knowledge. ‘Misallocations’ or ‘wastes’ would be minimised.

However, it is understandable to criticize the above statement and defend the position of Hayek. Entrepreneurs will eventually eliminate the imperfection that they possess via the ‘discovery process’ without the dependency of science.

To describe entrepreneurial activity as wasteful because it corrects mistakes only after they occur seems, as Kirzner put it, ‘similar to ascribing the ailment to the medicine which heals it, or even to blaming the diagnostic procedure for the disease is identifies’ (1973: 236).

To conclude, the writer believes that entrepreneurial knowledge is situational and to some degree commonsensical but it also includes an element of science.

References:

Caldwell, B. J. (1997). Hayek and Socialism. Journal of Economic Literature, 35(4):1856-1890.

Gray, J. (1998). Hayek on Liberty. Third edition. Routeledge: London and New York.

Hayek, F. A. (1945). The Use of Knowledge in Society. American Economic Review. XXXV, No. 4. pp. 519-30. American Economic Association.

Hayek, F. A. (1968). Competition as a Discovery Procedure. The Quarterly Journal of Austrian Economics 5, No. 3 (Fall 2002): 9–23.

Check out this FREE Kindle ebook ‘The Essential Hayek’ by Donald Boudreaux

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071: Darshak Patel on Using Popular Culture to Engage Economics Students in the Classroom and Online

February 5, 2016 by Frank

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071: Darshak Patel on Using Popular Culture to Engage Economics Students in the Classroom and Online

Darshak Patel is currently a Lecturer of economics at the University of Kentucky, USA.darshak patel

After a one-year Visiting Assistant Professor appointment at Roanoke College, Darshak served three years as an Assistant Professor of Economics at the University of Tennessee, Martin. 

Darshak’s research and teaching interests include labor economics, microeconomics, industrial organization, the economics of education, and sports economics.  

Darshak graduated with a PhD in Economics at the University of Kentucky with his dissertation exploring the use of  option value theory to explain student decision-making in post-secondary schooling. 

Economics:

In this interview, Darshak mentions: option value theory, pedagogy, decision-making, opportunity cost, logic, profit, the hazard model, entrepreneurship, economic growth and corruption.

Economists:

In this interview, Darshak mentions: Abdullah Al-Bahrani, Kim Holder, Brendan Sheridan, Jadrian Wooten and Milton Friedman.

In this episode you will learn:

  • whether using Twitter to enhance the students’ learning outcomes is effective.
  • how video scrapbooking can be integrated into the economics curriculum.
  • the benefits and difficulties of using social media platforms to teach economics.
  • what option value theory is.
  • about Milton Friedman’s recommendation to the US government to introduce a tax to finance the US involvement in World War II.
  • how Bing Crosby helped promote the purchase of war bonds for the US war effort during the Second World War.
  • about the transition of the Kenyan economy since the 1970s.
  • about the Chinese influence in Africa.
  • how you can use the economic data provided on FRED to bring your economics classroom alive.
  • how Darshak is using popular culture to help interpret economic concepts and theories.

Resources:

  • ESPN 30 for 30
  • Rockonomix
  • FRED
  • Critical Commons
  • Economics of Seinfeld by Professor Linda S. Ghent, Professor Alan Grant and George Lesica.
  • Bazinganomics by James Tierney, G. Dirk Mateer, Wayne Geerling, Jadrian Wooten and Ben Smith.
  • Economics of The Office by Dan Kuester, Dirk Mateer and Chris Youderian.
  • University of Kentucky Teaching Economics Conference

Books:

  • The Two-Second Advantage: How We Succeed by Anticipating the Future–Just Enough by Vivek Ranadive and Kevin Maney
  • Soccernomics by Simon Kuper and  Stefan Szymanski

Papers:

  • Al-Bahrani, A., Dowell, C. & Patel, D. (2016). Video Scrapbooking: An Art Form Revived in the Economics Curriculum. Journal of Economics and Economic Education Research. Forthcoming.
  • Patel, D. and Saunoris, J. (2016). Using FRED Data Series to Improve Learning Outcomes in Economic Courses: From Student to Practitioner, Journal of Economics and Finance Education. Forthcoming.
  • Al-bahrani, A., Patel, D. and Sheridan, B. (2015). Engaging Students Using Social Media: The Students Perspective. International Review of Economics Education, 19, 36-50.
  • Al-bahrani, A. and Patel, D. (2015). Incorporating Twitter, Instagram, and Facebook in Economics Classrooms,  Journal of Economic Education. 46 (1), 56-67.
  • Al-bahrani, A. and Patel, D. (2015). Using ESPN 30 for 30 to Teach Principles of Economics, Southern Economic Journal, 81 (3), 829-842.
  • Patel, D. and Ward, M. R. (2011). “Using Patent Citation Patterns to Infer Innovation Market Competition,” Research Policy. 40(6), 886–894.
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070: Chronis Lalas on Prospect Theory and ‘Making a Behavioral Economist’

January 28, 2016 by Frank

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070: Chronis Lalas on Prospect Theory and ‘Making a Behavioral Economist’

Chronis Lalas is an aspiring Behavioral Economist who is researching and publishing about the applications of chronis lalasBehavioral Economics in the real world. Chronis is a recent graduate of the University of Macedonia, Greece with a BA in Economics.

Chronis blogs at The Newbie Economist and aspires to be a behavioral economist that will optimize Fortune 500 corporations’ marketing campaigns through analyzing their existing customers’ behavior.

He aims to bring a fresh perspective to traditional economics by optimizing in consumer behavior analysis and brand management. As a young economist, his vision is to inspire students and the young generation to take on Behavioral Economics. His work has been published, amongst others, in the Online Political and Economic Newspaper The European Sting.

Economists:

In this interview, Chronis mentions: George Lowenstein, Dilip Soman, Leigh Caldwell, Yoram Bauman, Steve Keen and Dan Ariely.

Economics:

In this interview, Chronis mentions: behavioral economics, prospect theory, confirmation bias, loss aversion, financial crisis, capital controls, austerity, nudge and utility theory.

Who Chronis Would Love to Collaborate with:

Dan Ariely, Rory Sutherland of Ogilvy and Nir Eyal.

In this episode you will learn:

  • what is Prospect Theory.
  • about the infamous Prospect Theory graph.
  • about loss aversion and how Prospect Theory differs to Bernoulli’s Utility Theory.
  • how Prospect Theory is observed in Greece post the financial crisis.
  • about the reciprocity shown by TOMS shoes in Thessaloniki.
  • what makes consumers buy.
  • how consumer behavior can be influenced by manipulating their subconscious through a creatively built environment.
  • How playing French music influences the purchase of French wine.
  • How the names of products and how they are pronounced can change the way consumers think about the product.
  • why and how companies should consider a brand name for their product or service so as to maintain long-term customer loyalty.
  • about the plans that Chronis is undertaking including his behavioral economics comic.

Prospect Theory Paper and Graph:

  • Kahneman, D. and Tversky, A. (1979). Prospect Theory: An Analysis of Decision under Risk. Econometrica, 47(2), pp. 263-291.

Books:

  • Thinking, Fast and Slow by Kahneman and Tversky
  • Predictably Irrational by Dan Ariely
  • Nudge by Thaler and Sunstein
  • Misbehaving by Richard Thaler
  • Hooked: How to Build Habit-Forming Products by Nir Eyal
  • Why We Buy: The Science of Shopping by Paco Underhill
  • Decoded: The Science Behind Why We Buy by Phil Barden

Blog:

  • www.nirandfar.com by Nir Eyal
  • www.behavioraleconomics.com by Alain Samson
  • www.thebehaviouraleconomicslab.co.uk

Links:

  • Episode 067 of the Economic Rockstar podcast with Leigh Caldwell 
  • Behavioral Economics in Action by Dilip Soman 
  • The Behavioral Economics Guide 2015

Research:

  • North, A. C. The Effect of Background Music on the Taste of Wine.
  • North, A. C., Hargreaves, D. C. and McKendrick, J. (1997). In-store music affects product choice. Nature
  • Maglio, S. J., Rabaglia, C. D., Feder, M. A., Krehm, M. and Trope, Y. (2014). Vowel Sounds in Words Affect Mental Construal and Shift Preferences for Targets. Journal of Experimental Psychology: General.

Where to Find Chronis:

  • Website: The Newbie Economist
  • Email: chronis@lalas.info

Credits:

  • Parisian Kevin MacLeod (incompetech.com)
    Licensed under Creative Commons: By Attribution 3.0 License
    http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/
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069: Diane Coyle on GDP, Its Shortcomings and Alternative Measures

January 21, 2016 by Frank

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069: Diane Coyle on GDP, Its Shortcomings and Alternative Measures

Diane Coyle is Professor of Economics at the University of Manchester and runs the consultancy Enlightenment Economics.diane coyle

Diane is Vice-Chair of the BBC Trust and was a member of the Migration Advisory Committee and a member of the Competition Commission. She is also a visiting research associate at the University of Oxford’s Smith School of Enterprise and the Environment. 

Diane specialises in competition analysis and the economics of new technologies and globalisation.

Diane is the author of several books, including GDP: A Brief But Affectionate History, The Economics of Enough, The Soulful Science, Sex, Drugs and Economics and Paradoxes of Prosperity.

She was previously Economics Editor of The Independent and before that worked at the Treasury and in the private sector as an economist.

Diane has a PhD from Harvard and was awarded the OBE in January 2009.

Using happiness is an excuse for inactivity – Diane Coyle

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Influencers:

Peter Sinclair (University of Birmingham) and Ben Friedman (Harvard).

Economists:

In this interview, Diane mentions: Adam Smith, John Stuart Mill, Sir Charles Bean, Daron Acemoglu, Thomas Piketty, John McMillan, Tim Harford, Peter Sinclair (University of Birmingham) and Ben Friedman (Harvard).

Economics:

In this interview, Diane mentions: GDP, budget deficit, fiscal policy, monetary policy, interest rates, growth, employment, unemployment, Human Development Index, Gross National Happiness Index, happiness, hysteresis, inequality, financial markets, derivatives and leverage.

In this episode you will learn:

  • what is GDP and how it is measured.
  • the complications with understanding the meaning of GDP.
  • the historical origins of GDP and why it is used to measure our economy.
  • the complications in measuring GDP.
  • how GDP data is still collected in such an ‘old-fashioned’ way and the new methods to collecting data.
  • about the uncertainty and margin of error in GDP statistics.
  • why it is wrong to make fiscal policy, monetary policy and interest rate decisions on GDP statistics.
  • what proxy variables were used to measure economic activity before GDP was introduced.
  • why we should re-think the meaning of the economy.
  • why GDP today doesn’t work in its present form and if there is an alternative.
  • how countries can use GDP and GNP measures to portray different economic conditions.
  • the difference between GDP and GNP.
  • the concerning use of ‘administrative statistics’ by countries to falsify economic growth.
  • whether it’s correct to include illegal drug activity and prostitution in measuring GDP.
  • why measuring happiness and well-being should be of little importance when measuring GDP.
  • why Diane is sceptical about the Happiness Index.
  • the reason why economics was coined by Thomas Carlyle as the the ‘dismal science’.
  • who is to blame for the financial crisis of 2007/2008.
  • about the UK’s over-reliance on the financial sector and its role in measuring GDP.
  • about the uncertainty that would exist if the UK withdrew from the EU.
  • the policy factors required to create a sustainable society and a stable government.

 

It’s just so easy now to download data from the internet and run through statistical packages and get some results. And I think a lot of professional economists are guilty of not rethinking about their data enough – Diane Coyle

You cannot think about the economy mechanically – Diane Coyle

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The way we measure GDP now is really closely linked to Keynesian macroeconomic theory and a very famous definition he gave of  what total output in the economy is, that it’s consumer spending, government spending, investment spending and the balance of payments – Diane Coyle

There is no benefit for society in a lot of what happens in the financial markets – Diane Coyle

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Resources:

  • The Enlightenment Economist
  • Doomsday Book  – Earliest recording of economic activity.
  • Time to ditch GDP as a measure of economic well-being by Diane Coyle 
  • The Review of Economics and Statistics

Favorite Internet Resource:

  • Twitter

If you pick the right people to follow it acts as a brilliant editor of all the interesting information that you might want to know and it’s like having a personalised newspaper – Diane Coyle

Books:

  • GDP: A Brief But Affectionate History by Diane Coyle
  • The Soulful Science: What Economists Really Do and Why It Matters by Diane Coyle
  • The Economics of Enough: How to Run the Economy as If the Future Matters by Diane Coyle
  • Sex, Drugs and Economics: An Unconventional Introduction to Economics by Diane Coyle
  • Paradoxes of Prosperity: Why the New Capitalism Benefits All by Diane Coyle
  • Reinventing the Bazaar: A natural History of Markets by John McMillan
  • The Undercover Economist by Tim Harford
  • The Undercover Economist Strikes Back: How to Run or Ruin an Economy by Tim Harford

 

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Economic Rockstar Guests on TED

January 14, 2016 by Frank

Economic Rockstar TED

If you found the Economic Rockstar podcast interesting, then you’ll be interested in the TED talks that some of my guests gave on TED. Here they are ready for you to watch for your convenience. Enjoy!

Dan Ariely: Our buggy moral code

If you haven’t listened to Dan Ariely’s interview on the Economic Rockstar podcast, then check it out here.

Alex Tabarrok: How ideas trump crises

If you haven’t listened to Alex Tabarrok’s interview on the Economic Rockstar podcast, then check it out here.

Loretta Napoleoni: The intricate economics of terrorism

If you haven’t listened to Loretta Napoleoni’s interview on the Economic Rockstar podcast, then check it out here.

Dan Ariely: How equal do we want the world to be? You’d be surprised.

Dan Ariely: Beware of conflicts of interest

Dan Ariely: Are we in control of our own decisions? 

Dan Ariely: What makes us feel good about our work? 

068: Daron Acemoglu on Why Nations Fail and Why Inequality Exists Between Countries

January 14, 2016 by Frank

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068: Daron Acemoglu on Why Nations Fail and Why Inequality Exists Between Countries

Daron Acemoglu is the Elizabeth and James Killian Professor of Economics at Massachusetts Institute of daron acemoglu economic rockstarTechnology in Boston.

Daron’s principal interests are political economy, development economics, economic growth, technology, income and wage inequality, human capital and training, and labour economics.

Daron was the winner of the 2005 John Bates Clark Medal awarded to economists under forty judged to have made the most significant contribution to economic thought and knowledge.

His most recent works concentrate on the role of institutions in economic development and political economy.

Daron received his M.Sc. in Econometrics and Mathematical Economics and his Ph.D. from the London School of Economics.

Daron is co-author of ‘Why Nations Fail: The Origins of Power, Prosperity, and Poverty’ which can be found at whynationsfail.com

Markets are the foundation of long run economic growth but only if they are under guard by inclusive institutions – Daron Acemoglu

Economics: 

In this interview, Daron mentions: capitalism, marxism, inequality, inclusive institutions, extractive institutions, property, public finance,  rights, risks, cliometrics, econometrics, labor, technology, human capital, inequality, creative destruction and comparative advantage.

Economists: 

In this interview, Daron mentions: James Robinson, George Akerlof, Thomas Picketty, Douglass North and Joseph Schumpeter.

In this episode you will learn:

  • why nations fail and others prosper.
  • why Daron despises the term capitalism refereeing it as ‘and ugly term’.
  • why macro variables are second order to the type of institution when explaining the prosperity of a country.
  • why we should study political systems in an economics course.
  • how economic decisions get made.
  • if democracy is good for economic growth.
  • how Daron first became interested in institutions while growing up under a political dictatorship in Turkey.
  • if the political economy or the type of institution of a country explain inequality.
  • what explains inequality within a nation.
  • about Daron’s mixed views on philanthropy.
  • why empires, such as the Roman, Ottoman and British, collapse and whether we could witness the collapse of other institutions.
  • why China will ultimately fail in its present institutional form.
  • what China must do to maintain its economic growth.
  • about the Ireland and how its economy transitioned over the last 100 years.

I think, on the contrary, extractive institutions have great staying power – Daron Acemoglu

Books:

  • ‘Why Nations Fail: The Origins of Power, Prosperity, and Poverty’ by Daron Acemoglu.
  • Why the West Rules–for Now: The Patterns of History, and What They Reveal About the Future by Ian Morris.
  • War! What is It Good For? Conflict and the Progress of Civilization from Primates to Robots by Ian Morris
  • The Dynamics of Ancient Empires: State Power from Assyria to Byzantium by Ian Morris
  • The Secret of Our Success: How Culture Is Driving Human Evolution, Domesticating Our Species, and Making Us Smarter by Joseph Henrich

Where to Find Daron:

  • http://whynationsfail.com/
  • MIT academic page
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067: Leigh Caldwell on Cognitive Economics and the Mathematics of Behavioral Economics

January 3, 2016 by Frank

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067: Leigh Caldwell on Cognitive Economics and the Mathematics of Behavioral Economics

leigh caldwellLeigh Caldwell is a behavioural economist based in London.

Leigh, together with Elina Halonen, runs the Irrational Agency, which takes the latest scientific discoveries in psychology and behavioural economics, blends it with their hands-on experience of marketing and business, and turns them into powerful, incisive market research techniques.

In 2012, Leigh condensed his experience in pricing and the marketing of several of his businesses into a new book The Psychology of Price: How to use price to increase demand, profit and customer satisfaction.

Leigh is co-founder of the London Behavioural Economics Network, writes for the Pricing Revolution and the Knowing and Making blogs, and regularly features as an economics commentator on BBC News, Radio 4, Research Magazine and other media.

My own background is all about intellectual challenge. I went to university early as a teenager. I studied maths and physics. I was always into pushing myself intellectually and finding the next challenge to take on – Leigh Caldwell

Economists: 

In this interview, Leigh mentions: Elina Halonen, Dan Ariely and George Lowenstein.

Economics:

In this interview, Leigh mentions: Behavioral economics, experimental economics, lab experiments, demand curve, equilibrium, utility, mathematics, rationality, nudge, choice architecture, cognitive economics, reference pricing model, anchoring, hyperbolic discounting, heuristics, neuroeconomics, Nudge Unit, organ donation, tax collection, productivity, GDP and unemployment.

In this episode you will learn:

  • why Leigh help co-found the London Behavioural Economics Network (LBEN).
  • the importance of academics and practitioners working together to further the discipline of economics.
  • why finding the sweet-spot between controlled experiments and realism is difficult yet important.
  • what cognitive economics is and how different it is the behavioral economics.
  • whether big data could influence an individuals consumption behaviors.
  • about the need to use the mathematics of computer science in behavioral economics.
  • why we shouldn’t use the current maths of economics to explain human behavior.
  • why a lack of mathematics is holding back the discipline of behavioral economics.
  • why mathematics is essential for theorising and modelling economics, especially behavioural economics.
  • about the paradox of self-awareness in cognitive economics when faced with choices.
  • how a consumers relationship with a material object is a unique experience and how putting a price on the good can ruin this experience.
  • why charging a higher price for your product or service would generate higher profits in a perceived perfectly competitive market.
  • whether the 99p or 99 cent pricing strategy works.
  • about the reference pricing model and why charging $39 for a product is better than charging $34 for the same product.
  • about the importance of setting prices when considering how numbers are spoken, i.e. numbers with more syllables are received to be more expensive than those with fewer syllables. 
  • how Leigh uses the findings in academic papers to make money for his business.
  • how Leigh uses economic conferences to network, to find out about the latest research and to discover the new academic societies that have been established.
  • about Leigh’s goal for 2016 to start a Cognitive Economics Society.
  • about the advice Leigh would give the UK government to apply cognitive and behavioral economics to deal with some aspects of social life.
  • how the UK government changed people’s behaviour about paying their taxes on time.
  • about the productivity challenge the UK government is facing today and what can be done about it.
  • about the current research Leigh is undertaking regarding where our preferences come from.

Conferences:

  • Judgement and Decision Making Conference
  • American Economics Association Conference

Books:

  • The Psychology of Price: How to use price to increase demand, profit and customer satisfaction by Leigh Caldwell.
  • Predictably Irrational by Dan Ariely.
  • Basic Instinct by Pete Luhn
  • Nudge by Richard Thaler
  • Thinking, Fast and Slow by Kahneman and Tversky

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